Our lineup seems to be clicking, but the question always has to be in the back of Braves' fans minds - "What can we do to improve it so we can be consistent and not face the inevitable slumps that always occur with so much swing-and-miss in our lineup???" We're all well-aware that you seldom find teams that line up well enough to pull off three team deals - history has shown that. However, here's one take on one that just might work - a little outlandish or not.
The Dodgers' OF logjam is getting perilously close to causing problems in their clubhouse - 4 guys that should be playing every day (potentially 5 if you want to include Scott Van Slyke), with Joc Pederson deserving of a spot soon (if not already). The Red Sox are in dire need of OF help, particularly in CF - Jackie Bradley Jr. isn't getting it done for them, and he may well turn out to be a 4th OF - and given Clay Buchholz' struggles, they could use a proven arm to help in their rotation that will allow them to hang onto their younger arms (for further development or bigger deals down the road). The Braves would love a potential long-term answer at 2B - it doesn't appear that the organization's willing to commit consistent playing time to either Tyler Pastornicky or Ramiro Pena, and one has to wonder if they really feel Tommy La Stella can be better than either since they haven't promoted him.
The Dodgers obviously have money to burn, and the Sox doesn't have any long-term financial concerns. Many "experts" have linked the two teams as potential trade partners, but most think that the player Boston wants is the one that Los Angeles would prefer to keep if given their preference - Matt Kemp. Resident Dodgers' "homer" Jim Bowden maintains that his feeling is that the Dodgers' quiet shift of Kemp to LF tips their hand a little, believing that they eventually want to wind up with Kemp in LF, Pederson in CF, and Yasiel Puig in RF. This leaves Andre Ethier as the other CF that could be moved - the problem there is that Ethier's a questionable defender in the rather simple dimensions and angles in Dodger Stadium to begin with, making him a poor choice to deal with the odd angles and Green Monster that faces Red Sox' CFs. Most pundits view Carl Crawford as the Los Angeles OF with the least tradeable contract.
Could the Braves potentially get involved and improve all three teams' situations by doing so? While it takes a bit of a fantasy baseball GM to follow all the moving pieces in the scenario I'm going to propose, I do feel that there's a way that Frank Wren, Ned Colletti, and Ben Cherrington could hammer out such a deal if you could lock them all in a room for a little bit.
So here we go - I'll list the players involved followed by what each team's lineup would look like following the deal for everyone's perusal...
Dodgers Get: Dan Uggla, Christian Bethancourt, and Joey Terdoslavich
Red Sox Get: B. J. Upton, Scott Van Slyke, Gavin Floyd, and Cody Martin
Braves Get: Carl Crawford, Grady Sizemore, and Mookie Betts
This shakes the teams up to look like this following the trade...
Atlanta
LF- Carl Crawford
RF- Justin Upton
1B- Freddie Freeman
C- Evan Gattis
CF- Jason Heyward
3B- Chris Johnson
2B- Mookie Betts
SS- Andrelton Simmons
BENCH: Gerald Laird, Ryan Doumit, Ramiro Pena, Grady Sizemore
SP- Julio Teheran
SP- Mike Minor
SP- Ervin Santana
SP- Alex Wood
SP- Aaron Harang
Reason For Making The Deal: The Braves get their long-term answer at 2B and clear the salary space to take Crawford's contract on by dealing Dan Uggla and B. J. Upton away. It also allows them to maintain enough MLB-ready pitching depth for the rotation since David Hale can be sent back down to be stretched back out.
Los Angeles
2B- Dee Gordon
3B- Hanley Ramirez
RF- Yasiel Puig
1B- Adrian Gonzalez
LF- Matt Kemp
CF- Andre Ethier
SS- Alexander Guerrero
C- Drew Butera
BENCH- Tim Federowicz, Joey Terdoslavich, Justin Turner, Dan Uggla
SP- Clayton Kershaw
SP- Zack Greinke
SP- Hyun-Jin Ryu
SP- Dan Haren
SP- Josh Beckett
Reason For Making The Deal: The Dodgers move their most "unmovable" contract, clearing the way to move Ethier in a deal for prospects when a team where he fits better presents itself (Seattle maybe?). They save money (swapping Crawford's deal for Uggla's) while helping to clear the way for Pederson's eventual promotion as well as allowing them to promote Guerrero and slide Ramirez over to 3B since Guerrero's a natural SS that they've been trying to convert into a 2B. It also provides them a quality switch-hitter to replace Van Slyke as their 5th OF and backup for Gonzalez at 1B and their Catcher of the future in Bethancourt.
Boston
CF- B. J. Upton
3B- Xander Bogaerts
2B- Dustin Pedroia
DH- David Ortiz
1B- Mike Napoli
RF- Jonny Gomes
C- A. J. Pierzynski
LF- Scott Van Slyke
SS- Stephen Drew
BENCH: David Ross, Mike Carp, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jonathon Herrera
SP- Jon Lester
SP- John Lackey
SP- Gavin Floyd
SP- Jake Peavy
SP- Brandon Workman
Reason For Making The Deal: Upton has shown signs of finally coming around of late, and is certainly a better defensive CF option than Ethier. Sizemore is capable of playing CF, but given his propensity for injury, he's seen most of his time in LF of late to save wear and tear (not to mention he hasn't been particularly productive either). Van Slyke would give the Sox a bat with serious pop that will lengthen their lineup and can fill in for Napoli at 1B whenever needed. Floyd significantly improves their rotation immediately with a proven successful commodity against AL competition and allows the Sox to hold onto their young arms (with the addition of Martin) that can be combined in a potential package for Jeff Samardzija - the Cubs are one of the few MLB teams with the IF/OF depth already present in their system where Betts wouldn't necessarily be needed.
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
A New Lineup Twist
Now that the offense has one of its little spurts going, let's take the time to look forward a bit. Most folks associated with Braves' Nation in any way have decided that the top of the lineup is the right spot for (my Twitter designation #LeadoffMonster) Jason Heyward. While I don't disagree with that, has the time potentially arrived that the organization should consider potentially upping his value by making him a full time CF??? The reason I raise the question is that I think it could lengthen the lineup assuming B. J. Upton can't eventually cure the terrible contact issues he's experienced since he was signed.
We're all well aware that J-Hey doesn't profile as your prototypical leadoff guy - his power has always looked as if it would play better in an RBI spot lower in the lineup. That said, he's really taken a liking to his current role as "the straw that stirs the drink". He's on pace to be the first Brave with 30+ SBs in years, and his approach seems to improve for longer stretches when he's not asked to be a power source. Heyward really reminds me of a super-size version of Rickey Henderson - a superb corner OF defender with the tools to be a perennial 20+ HR 30+ SB guy perched atop the lineup. He's the best baserunner on the team (and it really isn't particularly close), and his power tends to show up more often when he's trying to drive balls into the gaps for doubles rather than trying to lift anything at all.
The main reason B. J. Upton was signed (instead of a prototypical CF/leadoff type) is that the organization had seen glimpses of Heyward being this type of leadoff threat. The funny thing is, B. J.'s not shown himself to be an even slightly better defender in CF than Jason has when he's played there. Unfortunately his lack of contact offsets just about any benefit you'd hope to gain from reducing the additional wear and tear you're trying to keep Jason from having to deal with when having the larger area to patrol. While Justin Upton's far from a bad defensive OF regardless of which corner he's on, my eyes keep telling me that he's more confident (and happier) when he's playing RF - not to mention he was a Gold Glove winner there in the past.
The question I keep circling back around to is - "Could this team potentially be MUCH better if you moved Heyward to CF and Justin to RF with a much higher OBP type in LF?" Much like last season when Gonzalez was trying to get Evan Gattis' bat in the lineup as often as possible, you could generally shade Heyward a little towards LF defensively to minimize the ground a less talented defender there would have to cover. While it's admittedly a small sample size (87 plate appearances), Jason's numbers in CF last season were strong - .278/.402/.458/.861, 3 HRs, 10 RBIs, with a 15/16 BB/K ratio. That was good for a 122 tOPS+ and 136 sOPS+.
This is simply an exercise in the same "what if" discussions fans of every team love to get into on message boards all over the vast internet, but I do think whether some of the offense's prolonged cold streaks would be shortened by such a move is a legitimate question. Fill the two biggest swing-and-miss holes in the order with Joey Terdoslavich (a switch-hitter with a little pop and a 5 year career minor league line of .287/.343/.468/.811 and not much left to prove down there) replacing B. J. and Tommy La Stella (a LH bat with a 4 year career minor league line of .322/.407/.473/.879) - suddenly the lineup becomes L-R-L-R-S-R-L-R balanced and you eliminate any opposing manager's opportunity to bring in one reliever to pitch to 2-3 hitters late in close games. Even if you don't find a taker for the remainder of B. J. or Dan Uggla's contracts, Joey-T and La Stella will be inexpensive until they're off the Braves' books.
Count me as the one who would love to see a lineup that looks like...
CF- Heyward
RF- J-Up
1B- Freeman
C- Gattis
LF- Terdoslavich
3B- Johnson
2B- La Stella
SS- Simmons
every day. I sure think I'd scream at the TV a little less!!!
We're all well aware that J-Hey doesn't profile as your prototypical leadoff guy - his power has always looked as if it would play better in an RBI spot lower in the lineup. That said, he's really taken a liking to his current role as "the straw that stirs the drink". He's on pace to be the first Brave with 30+ SBs in years, and his approach seems to improve for longer stretches when he's not asked to be a power source. Heyward really reminds me of a super-size version of Rickey Henderson - a superb corner OF defender with the tools to be a perennial 20+ HR 30+ SB guy perched atop the lineup. He's the best baserunner on the team (and it really isn't particularly close), and his power tends to show up more often when he's trying to drive balls into the gaps for doubles rather than trying to lift anything at all.
The main reason B. J. Upton was signed (instead of a prototypical CF/leadoff type) is that the organization had seen glimpses of Heyward being this type of leadoff threat. The funny thing is, B. J.'s not shown himself to be an even slightly better defender in CF than Jason has when he's played there. Unfortunately his lack of contact offsets just about any benefit you'd hope to gain from reducing the additional wear and tear you're trying to keep Jason from having to deal with when having the larger area to patrol. While Justin Upton's far from a bad defensive OF regardless of which corner he's on, my eyes keep telling me that he's more confident (and happier) when he's playing RF - not to mention he was a Gold Glove winner there in the past.
The question I keep circling back around to is - "Could this team potentially be MUCH better if you moved Heyward to CF and Justin to RF with a much higher OBP type in LF?" Much like last season when Gonzalez was trying to get Evan Gattis' bat in the lineup as often as possible, you could generally shade Heyward a little towards LF defensively to minimize the ground a less talented defender there would have to cover. While it's admittedly a small sample size (87 plate appearances), Jason's numbers in CF last season were strong - .278/.402/.458/.861, 3 HRs, 10 RBIs, with a 15/16 BB/K ratio. That was good for a 122 tOPS+ and 136 sOPS+.
This is simply an exercise in the same "what if" discussions fans of every team love to get into on message boards all over the vast internet, but I do think whether some of the offense's prolonged cold streaks would be shortened by such a move is a legitimate question. Fill the two biggest swing-and-miss holes in the order with Joey Terdoslavich (a switch-hitter with a little pop and a 5 year career minor league line of .287/.343/.468/.811 and not much left to prove down there) replacing B. J. and Tommy La Stella (a LH bat with a 4 year career minor league line of .322/.407/.473/.879) - suddenly the lineup becomes L-R-L-R-S-R-L-R balanced and you eliminate any opposing manager's opportunity to bring in one reliever to pitch to 2-3 hitters late in close games. Even if you don't find a taker for the remainder of B. J. or Dan Uggla's contracts, Joey-T and La Stella will be inexpensive until they're off the Braves' books.
Count me as the one who would love to see a lineup that looks like...
CF- Heyward
RF- J-Up
1B- Freeman
C- Gattis
LF- Terdoslavich
3B- Johnson
2B- La Stella
SS- Simmons
every day. I sure think I'd scream at the TV a little less!!!
Monday, May 19, 2014
Surgeries And Responsible Salary Commitments Following Them
OK, we've obviously discovered that the new park and new TV revenues (both national and re-worked regional deals) have vaulted the likely payroll moving forward back into the range of the good old days when Ted was writing checks. The organization still has to stay "on its game" and pinch pennies wherever possible to remain competitive with much larger markets and their larger TV deals. Wren & Company simply can't afford mistakes that approach the Uggla and B. J. stratospheres if there's ANY chance that the recent extensions eventually pay off. That said, there are going to be a couple of choices that HAVE to be made this winter that are likely going to upset some fans.
One in particular is that you have to continue to do what you can to assist Kris Medlen in his recovery and monitor his progress closely, but when the time comes Wren's going to have to tell him that he's going to be non-tendered and needs to establish his market BEFORE the organization can make a decision about bringing him back. You likely have to do the same thing with Brandon Beachy.
Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, and Alex Wood are pretty close to the "no-brainers" in the 2015 rotation. David Hale is obviously a candidate. Then you have Cody Martin, J. R. Graham, Aaron Northcraft, and Jason Hursh within reach. You've got Wes Parsons, Lucas Sims, and Mauricio Cabrera a little deeper, followed by Yean Carlos Gil and Andy Otero in Rome. You've even got Andry Ubiera, Yeralf Torres, and Luis Barrios as big upside kids in the rookie leagues plus anyone selected in the draft in a few weeks.
Retaining Ervin Santana will likely cost in the neighborhood of $16-$17 million per year, meaning he can be kept without adversely affecting the budget when you consider that Wood will replace one of Gavin Floyd or Aaron Harang in the rotation for good in 2015. Assuming the other various 2015 roster replacements (Christian Bethancourt replacing Gerald Laird, Todd Cunningham replacing Jordan Schafer, Joey Terdoslavich replacing Ryan Doumit), the money to keep Santana is there without making any significant moves other than letting Harang move on. That gets you to 4 of the 5 spots spoken for, and leaves you with calls to make on Floyd, Medlen, and Beachy. Given the likelihood that B. J. and Uggla are on the 2015 roster as sunk costs (or elsewhere still costing the organization significant dollars to play for someone else), there's no chance that all three of them are kept around.
I was entirely against tying up 2014 payroll in retaining Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty coming off of their second Tommy John Surgeries, and Venters' setback when throwing batting practice last Wednesday is exactly the reason I referenced at the time. (O'Flaherty signed with Oakland, and has yet to make it back either.) While the numbers detailing Pitchers attempting comebacks from a second ligament transplant procedure aren't overwhelming for serious stats guys who want to see huge sample sizes before they're convinced that any course of action is the "best one", many of the surgeons have been quoted as saying that's simply because many Pitchers facing a second operation simply call it a career rather than attempting the long and taxing rehab process. The chances for a successful return to anything approaching previous performance following a second procedure are significantly lower than the first even though there isn't the volume of evidence. Venters is making $2,300,000 this season, and while that isn't a substantial amount of money in MLB these days, it's still a lot to have (especially for a reliever) on top of the other "dead money" you have tied up in Upton ($13,450,000), Uggla ($12,500,000), and Medlen ($5,800,000).
Braves Nation LOVES Kris Medlen and wants nothing more than for him to return to be a successful Pitcher - and it would be terribly painful to see that happen elsewhere - but that's not the type of gamble Wren & Company can make this offseason if they want to be a contender next year. Non-tendering Medlen and Beachy gives you a minimum of $6,700,000 to spend on the fifth Pitcher in the 2015 rotation. If Floyd is non-tendered, that number becomes $10,700,000. If Floyd continues a return to health and maintains his current production, he can likely be retained for that number, and you'd also have potential free-agent options such as Chad Billingsley, Jason Hammel, and Colby Lewis available in that price range. If there's more money available to spend next season (or the unlikely scenario that another team is willing to take on $5 million or more of Uggla or Upton's salaries) and the money offered in incentives to Floyd this season is also available, then the available potential free-agent list includes names like James Shields, Justin Masterson, and Yovani Gallardo.
Unfortunately the Braves simply can't commit +/- $6 million to Medlen in the HOPE that he somehow beats the odds no matter how much their fans would love to see him do it in a Braves uniform - however, if he tests the market and finds out that other teams aren't willing to give him a multi-year commitment for significant dollars, he'll be welcomed back to compete for a spot on the staff (even if it's as a reliever).
One in particular is that you have to continue to do what you can to assist Kris Medlen in his recovery and monitor his progress closely, but when the time comes Wren's going to have to tell him that he's going to be non-tendered and needs to establish his market BEFORE the organization can make a decision about bringing him back. You likely have to do the same thing with Brandon Beachy.
Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, and Alex Wood are pretty close to the "no-brainers" in the 2015 rotation. David Hale is obviously a candidate. Then you have Cody Martin, J. R. Graham, Aaron Northcraft, and Jason Hursh within reach. You've got Wes Parsons, Lucas Sims, and Mauricio Cabrera a little deeper, followed by Yean Carlos Gil and Andy Otero in Rome. You've even got Andry Ubiera, Yeralf Torres, and Luis Barrios as big upside kids in the rookie leagues plus anyone selected in the draft in a few weeks.
Retaining Ervin Santana will likely cost in the neighborhood of $16-$17 million per year, meaning he can be kept without adversely affecting the budget when you consider that Wood will replace one of Gavin Floyd or Aaron Harang in the rotation for good in 2015. Assuming the other various 2015 roster replacements (Christian Bethancourt replacing Gerald Laird, Todd Cunningham replacing Jordan Schafer, Joey Terdoslavich replacing Ryan Doumit), the money to keep Santana is there without making any significant moves other than letting Harang move on. That gets you to 4 of the 5 spots spoken for, and leaves you with calls to make on Floyd, Medlen, and Beachy. Given the likelihood that B. J. and Uggla are on the 2015 roster as sunk costs (or elsewhere still costing the organization significant dollars to play for someone else), there's no chance that all three of them are kept around.
I was entirely against tying up 2014 payroll in retaining Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty coming off of their second Tommy John Surgeries, and Venters' setback when throwing batting practice last Wednesday is exactly the reason I referenced at the time. (O'Flaherty signed with Oakland, and has yet to make it back either.) While the numbers detailing Pitchers attempting comebacks from a second ligament transplant procedure aren't overwhelming for serious stats guys who want to see huge sample sizes before they're convinced that any course of action is the "best one", many of the surgeons have been quoted as saying that's simply because many Pitchers facing a second operation simply call it a career rather than attempting the long and taxing rehab process. The chances for a successful return to anything approaching previous performance following a second procedure are significantly lower than the first even though there isn't the volume of evidence. Venters is making $2,300,000 this season, and while that isn't a substantial amount of money in MLB these days, it's still a lot to have (especially for a reliever) on top of the other "dead money" you have tied up in Upton ($13,450,000), Uggla ($12,500,000), and Medlen ($5,800,000).
Braves Nation LOVES Kris Medlen and wants nothing more than for him to return to be a successful Pitcher - and it would be terribly painful to see that happen elsewhere - but that's not the type of gamble Wren & Company can make this offseason if they want to be a contender next year. Non-tendering Medlen and Beachy gives you a minimum of $6,700,000 to spend on the fifth Pitcher in the 2015 rotation. If Floyd is non-tendered, that number becomes $10,700,000. If Floyd continues a return to health and maintains his current production, he can likely be retained for that number, and you'd also have potential free-agent options such as Chad Billingsley, Jason Hammel, and Colby Lewis available in that price range. If there's more money available to spend next season (or the unlikely scenario that another team is willing to take on $5 million or more of Uggla or Upton's salaries) and the money offered in incentives to Floyd this season is also available, then the available potential free-agent list includes names like James Shields, Justin Masterson, and Yovani Gallardo.
Unfortunately the Braves simply can't commit +/- $6 million to Medlen in the HOPE that he somehow beats the odds no matter how much their fans would love to see him do it in a Braves uniform - however, if he tests the market and finds out that other teams aren't willing to give him a multi-year commitment for significant dollars, he'll be welcomed back to compete for a spot on the staff (even if it's as a reliever).
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
So You Want An "Ace"???
OK, OK, OK. Like tons of fans around the country, we Braves faithful have been screaming for years that the one thing that separates our favorite team from that next World Series is having that true "Ace" sitting at the top of our rotation. Many times that simply hasn't been the case since there have been other holes - whether we were willing to admit them or not. Heading into 2014 however, I completely agree with those who think that if we had that ONE guy, this will be our year. The 2013 version of Tomahawk Choppers was close - so close that everyone (not just Braves fans) could feel it. The players could taste it too...the squad battled through multiple injuries that would've been crippling to most organizations - the loss of BOTH Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters before the opening gun went off, Brian McCann's April lost to shoulder rehabilitation, Brandon Beachy's struggle to get back following Tommy John surgery, Freddie Freeman's stint on the DL (that may very well have cost him an NL MVP award), Tim Hudson's broken ankle that ended his season just as he was looking as good as he's ever looked in a Braves uniform, and the stray Jon Niese fastball to Jason Heyward's jaw that was likely the final straw - yet somehow this team was still locked in a battle with the Cardinals for the best record in the NL right down to the last weekend of the regular season. Someone different seemed to step up in a big spot every night. The Braves had the best home record in baseball as well as winning records against EVERY other NL playoff team with entirely lost seasons from its two highest paid players - Dan Uggla and B. J. Upton were two of the worst hitters in the league among players with qualifying ABs.
So let's fast-forward to 2014 - every important piece of last season's successful campaign is likely returning other than Brian McCann. I hate it just as much as everyone else, but it's simple baseball economics. Mac signed a team-friendly extension a few years back, and he deserves to get paid for the player he's been and still is - one of the most elite hitters as a Catcher in recent memory. While having him in the clubhouse both to be the face of the franchise as well as help with the transfer of leadership from Chipper Jones was terribly important in 2013, he's over 30 with a lot of innings crouched behind the plate. The free-agent "perfect storm" for someone like Brian has arisen - EVERY big market contender is looking for an offensive-minded Catcher just as THE guy they'd all love to have becomes available. Add to that the fact that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers are AL clubs with the ability to extend Mac's value by utilizing him as a DH at times to help with the wear and tear, and there's going to be some kind of bidding war for his services. Some estimates I've seen are in the 5 year - $100 million range, and I think that might even turn out to be a little less than he ultimately commands. Even at a 25% discount, the Braves simply don't have the flexibility to offer one of their most-liked players that kind of contract - the last 2 years could be financially disastrous for a mid-market club. (Side note - if anybody other than John Smoltz or Chipper Jones ever deserved the opportunity to "cash-in" and set up his family for generations to come WITHOUT one ounce of blowback from fans, that guy is Brian McCann.)
Will Mac's numbers and presence be missed? Of course. That said, this team has begun to develop it's own identity with Freeman, Heyward, the Upton brothers, and Andrelton Simmons as its core, and Brian's production will arguably be replaced (and even potentially exceeded) with a full compliment of ABs for Evan Gattis and just an average B. J. Upton season at the dish. Offense, while at times inconsistent, is far from the top of the list of concerns the Braves have moving forward. Freeman will be a perennial MVP candidate, Justin Upton could be with a little more consistency, and Heyward, Gattis, B. J. Upton, and Simmons are all capable of igniting an offense when needed - and all should be even better in 2014.
While the Braves' pitching staff was among baseball's elite in 2013 even with all the injuries, the overwhelming feeling was that it was that one DOMINANT arm that would allow everyone to slip down one notch and make it truly overpowering. Mike Minor and Kris Medlen made huge steps forward in their development, Julio Teheran had the kind of rookie campaign everyone had hoped for (and many naysayers had given up hope for), Alex Wood delivered on his promise (even if for just a short time - which was really all one could expect), and Paul Maholm was...well, Paul Maholm. The what-if crowd will say "yeah, but if Hudson hadn't gone down or Beachy would've made it back that would've made a huge difference", and I don't entirely disagree with them. While I've long trumpeted Huddy as an "Ace without being a true Ace" and Beachy showed so much promise before his injury, I have to agree that neither of them is that guy that scares other teams in a short series. To be completely honest, no one on the Braves current staff has the potential to develop into that kind of pitcher other than Teheran, and the next two with that kind of upside spent their 2013 seasons in Rome (Lucas Sims and Mauricio Cabrera). I can't escape the feeling that the pundits (as well as the competition) would've viewed last season's squad in an entirely different light if Minor and Medlen would have been Game 2 and Game 3 starters in the postseason.
So what to do? With a minimal number of question marks and no gaping holes to fill heading into the Hot Stove season, Frank Wren is at a crossroad - do you gamble and take one or two shots at winning a Championship by mortgaging a portion of the future or not? Given the current makeup of the rest of the roster and the financial situation, my answer would be "yes". Most of the early buzz from Atlanta fans is that they'd like to see him put together a package to try to land David Price (who the Rays are all but certain to move this winter). In a perfect world, I'd love to see that too. Any "Ace" is going to cost a substantially significant package to land, and Price is going to get the Rays the biggest return of all since he's got two years of control remaining. Finances aren't going to be an issue for once - the commitments to Mac, Hudson, and Maholm are over, and each MLB club will be gaining roughly an additional $28 million in revenues from the new national TV deal. The money is available to add a significant piece without spending a large chunk of the new revenue or gaining additional flexibility by moving Dan Uggla for a little salary relief. Price should receive around $14 million in arbitration, grew up a Braves fan, and is the obvious choice. I asked a couple of the Baseball America guys (Jim Callis and J. J. Cooper) about a potential package of Alex Wood, Christian Bethancourt, Lucas Sims, and Jose Peraza (4 of the Braves' Top 10 prospects) for Price, and both felt that wouldn't be enough for Tampa in their opinion. Their feeling was that Sims and Peraza are just too far away from contributing at the MLB level for them to pull the trigger. Even though I think that'd be one heck of a return, I tend to agree with them - Tampa's not looking to completely rebuild these days, they're trying to remain competitive in the tough AL East as well. Would substituting Teheran and Gattis for Wood and Bethancourt make enough difference to get Andrew Friedman to say yes? Maybe, but then you're left without a Catcher.
After thinking through the above offer, I backed away and wondered "if an offer like that won't get you David Price, who might it get?" The answer hit me like a ton of bricks. You want to target an Ace that is "expendable" (if there is such a thing). That Pitcher is Max Scherzer. The Tigers are a contender with a pretty weak farm system that already has an Ace and several significant financial commitments. They're already committed long-term to Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder, and Anibal Sanchez and are soon going to have to extend the best hitter that baseball has seen in generations in Miguel Cabrera. While Scherzer and Verlander are 1A and 1B, Sanchez is a legitimate #2 on any contender pitching as a #3. Would they be that much worse without Scherzer? On paper, maybe a little, but Wood or Teheran would more than hold their own if slotted into Detroit's rotation. However, they have very few impact arms in their system, none with the upside of Sims, and Bethancourt and Peraza would give them huge upgrades over anyone in their system at their positions as well. Offer Wood first, but be willing to substitute Teheran if that gets it done. Is it a gamble? Sure, but the money and talent to make it happen is available, AND you have the increased revenue coming for future seasons to utilize in trying to lock up Scherzer beyond next season. If I can't get Price, he's definitely my guy.
When Sid Slid's Proposed 2014 Braves Roster:
RF- Jason Heyward
LF- Justin Upton
1B- Freddie Freeman
C- Evan Gattis
3B- Chris Johnson
2B- Tommy La Stella
CF- B. J. Upton
SS- Andrelton Simmons
SP- Max Scherzer
SP- Mike Minor
SP- Kris Medlen
SP- Julio Teheran or Alex Wood
SP- Brandon Beachy
CL- Craig Kimbrell
SU- Luis Avilan
SU- Jordan Walden
RP- David Carpenter
RP- Jonny Venters
RP- David Hale
LR- Anthony Varvaro or Cristian Martinez
BENCH- Gerald Laird, Dan Uggla, Jordan Schafer, Elliot Johnson, Joey Terdoslavich
When reading between the lines of the statements the organization has made so far, I have to believe that Uggla will be moved if someone's willing to pay $6-8 million of what the Braves still owe him and that he HAS to produce, meaning that they'll consider 2B an open competition if he's still on the roster come February. La Stella's doing everything possible to make the brass feel confident that he's "ready" in the Arizona Fall League, but you also have Johnson and Tyler Pastornicky as fallback options. Johnson will be kept around until Ramiro Pena's ready to return. That buys even more time. Given the potential hole the Tigers could have at 2B with Omar Infante's pending departure, I'd even offer to extend the potential Scherzer deal to include Uggla and cover his salary IF they'd take Wood rather than Teheran. I've referenced MLBTR's salary projections in the construction of my Braves' salary spreadsheet, and the above roster would come in at right around $100 million in 2014 commitments even if the Braves pay Uggla's full salary, re-sign Schafer (projected $1 million), take a chance on bringing Venters back (projected $2.3 million) instead of cutting costs with a less-expensive arm and pay the $150,000 buy-out due Reed Johnson. If the Tigers would take Uggla and eat around $3-$4 million, you'd even have the option of offering contracts to both Venters and O'Flaherty - talk about a dominant bullpen if they were both healthy, wow!!! Terry McGuirk, John Schuerholz, and Frank Wren have all been consistent in their stance that they have the go-ahead from Liberty Media to expand payroll if needed, and that projected $100 million figure isn't even really a bump in salaries when you factor in the additional $28 million in TV revenue.
So let's fast-forward to 2014 - every important piece of last season's successful campaign is likely returning other than Brian McCann. I hate it just as much as everyone else, but it's simple baseball economics. Mac signed a team-friendly extension a few years back, and he deserves to get paid for the player he's been and still is - one of the most elite hitters as a Catcher in recent memory. While having him in the clubhouse both to be the face of the franchise as well as help with the transfer of leadership from Chipper Jones was terribly important in 2013, he's over 30 with a lot of innings crouched behind the plate. The free-agent "perfect storm" for someone like Brian has arisen - EVERY big market contender is looking for an offensive-minded Catcher just as THE guy they'd all love to have becomes available. Add to that the fact that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers are AL clubs with the ability to extend Mac's value by utilizing him as a DH at times to help with the wear and tear, and there's going to be some kind of bidding war for his services. Some estimates I've seen are in the 5 year - $100 million range, and I think that might even turn out to be a little less than he ultimately commands. Even at a 25% discount, the Braves simply don't have the flexibility to offer one of their most-liked players that kind of contract - the last 2 years could be financially disastrous for a mid-market club. (Side note - if anybody other than John Smoltz or Chipper Jones ever deserved the opportunity to "cash-in" and set up his family for generations to come WITHOUT one ounce of blowback from fans, that guy is Brian McCann.)
Will Mac's numbers and presence be missed? Of course. That said, this team has begun to develop it's own identity with Freeman, Heyward, the Upton brothers, and Andrelton Simmons as its core, and Brian's production will arguably be replaced (and even potentially exceeded) with a full compliment of ABs for Evan Gattis and just an average B. J. Upton season at the dish. Offense, while at times inconsistent, is far from the top of the list of concerns the Braves have moving forward. Freeman will be a perennial MVP candidate, Justin Upton could be with a little more consistency, and Heyward, Gattis, B. J. Upton, and Simmons are all capable of igniting an offense when needed - and all should be even better in 2014.
While the Braves' pitching staff was among baseball's elite in 2013 even with all the injuries, the overwhelming feeling was that it was that one DOMINANT arm that would allow everyone to slip down one notch and make it truly overpowering. Mike Minor and Kris Medlen made huge steps forward in their development, Julio Teheran had the kind of rookie campaign everyone had hoped for (and many naysayers had given up hope for), Alex Wood delivered on his promise (even if for just a short time - which was really all one could expect), and Paul Maholm was...well, Paul Maholm. The what-if crowd will say "yeah, but if Hudson hadn't gone down or Beachy would've made it back that would've made a huge difference", and I don't entirely disagree with them. While I've long trumpeted Huddy as an "Ace without being a true Ace" and Beachy showed so much promise before his injury, I have to agree that neither of them is that guy that scares other teams in a short series. To be completely honest, no one on the Braves current staff has the potential to develop into that kind of pitcher other than Teheran, and the next two with that kind of upside spent their 2013 seasons in Rome (Lucas Sims and Mauricio Cabrera). I can't escape the feeling that the pundits (as well as the competition) would've viewed last season's squad in an entirely different light if Minor and Medlen would have been Game 2 and Game 3 starters in the postseason.
So what to do? With a minimal number of question marks and no gaping holes to fill heading into the Hot Stove season, Frank Wren is at a crossroad - do you gamble and take one or two shots at winning a Championship by mortgaging a portion of the future or not? Given the current makeup of the rest of the roster and the financial situation, my answer would be "yes". Most of the early buzz from Atlanta fans is that they'd like to see him put together a package to try to land David Price (who the Rays are all but certain to move this winter). In a perfect world, I'd love to see that too. Any "Ace" is going to cost a substantially significant package to land, and Price is going to get the Rays the biggest return of all since he's got two years of control remaining. Finances aren't going to be an issue for once - the commitments to Mac, Hudson, and Maholm are over, and each MLB club will be gaining roughly an additional $28 million in revenues from the new national TV deal. The money is available to add a significant piece without spending a large chunk of the new revenue or gaining additional flexibility by moving Dan Uggla for a little salary relief. Price should receive around $14 million in arbitration, grew up a Braves fan, and is the obvious choice. I asked a couple of the Baseball America guys (Jim Callis and J. J. Cooper) about a potential package of Alex Wood, Christian Bethancourt, Lucas Sims, and Jose Peraza (4 of the Braves' Top 10 prospects) for Price, and both felt that wouldn't be enough for Tampa in their opinion. Their feeling was that Sims and Peraza are just too far away from contributing at the MLB level for them to pull the trigger. Even though I think that'd be one heck of a return, I tend to agree with them - Tampa's not looking to completely rebuild these days, they're trying to remain competitive in the tough AL East as well. Would substituting Teheran and Gattis for Wood and Bethancourt make enough difference to get Andrew Friedman to say yes? Maybe, but then you're left without a Catcher.
After thinking through the above offer, I backed away and wondered "if an offer like that won't get you David Price, who might it get?" The answer hit me like a ton of bricks. You want to target an Ace that is "expendable" (if there is such a thing). That Pitcher is Max Scherzer. The Tigers are a contender with a pretty weak farm system that already has an Ace and several significant financial commitments. They're already committed long-term to Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder, and Anibal Sanchez and are soon going to have to extend the best hitter that baseball has seen in generations in Miguel Cabrera. While Scherzer and Verlander are 1A and 1B, Sanchez is a legitimate #2 on any contender pitching as a #3. Would they be that much worse without Scherzer? On paper, maybe a little, but Wood or Teheran would more than hold their own if slotted into Detroit's rotation. However, they have very few impact arms in their system, none with the upside of Sims, and Bethancourt and Peraza would give them huge upgrades over anyone in their system at their positions as well. Offer Wood first, but be willing to substitute Teheran if that gets it done. Is it a gamble? Sure, but the money and talent to make it happen is available, AND you have the increased revenue coming for future seasons to utilize in trying to lock up Scherzer beyond next season. If I can't get Price, he's definitely my guy.
When Sid Slid's Proposed 2014 Braves Roster:
RF- Jason Heyward
LF- Justin Upton
1B- Freddie Freeman
C- Evan Gattis
3B- Chris Johnson
2B- Tommy La Stella
CF- B. J. Upton
SS- Andrelton Simmons
SP- Max Scherzer
SP- Mike Minor
SP- Kris Medlen
SP- Julio Teheran or Alex Wood
SP- Brandon Beachy
CL- Craig Kimbrell
SU- Luis Avilan
SU- Jordan Walden
RP- David Carpenter
RP- Jonny Venters
RP- David Hale
LR- Anthony Varvaro or Cristian Martinez
BENCH- Gerald Laird, Dan Uggla, Jordan Schafer, Elliot Johnson, Joey Terdoslavich
When reading between the lines of the statements the organization has made so far, I have to believe that Uggla will be moved if someone's willing to pay $6-8 million of what the Braves still owe him and that he HAS to produce, meaning that they'll consider 2B an open competition if he's still on the roster come February. La Stella's doing everything possible to make the brass feel confident that he's "ready" in the Arizona Fall League, but you also have Johnson and Tyler Pastornicky as fallback options. Johnson will be kept around until Ramiro Pena's ready to return. That buys even more time. Given the potential hole the Tigers could have at 2B with Omar Infante's pending departure, I'd even offer to extend the potential Scherzer deal to include Uggla and cover his salary IF they'd take Wood rather than Teheran. I've referenced MLBTR's salary projections in the construction of my Braves' salary spreadsheet, and the above roster would come in at right around $100 million in 2014 commitments even if the Braves pay Uggla's full salary, re-sign Schafer (projected $1 million), take a chance on bringing Venters back (projected $2.3 million) instead of cutting costs with a less-expensive arm and pay the $150,000 buy-out due Reed Johnson. If the Tigers would take Uggla and eat around $3-$4 million, you'd even have the option of offering contracts to both Venters and O'Flaherty - talk about a dominant bullpen if they were both healthy, wow!!! Terry McGuirk, John Schuerholz, and Frank Wren have all been consistent in their stance that they have the go-ahead from Liberty Media to expand payroll if needed, and that projected $100 million figure isn't even really a bump in salaries when you factor in the additional $28 million in TV revenue.
Monday, September 2, 2013
Post-2013 Braves' Minor League Depth Chart
As the 2013 Minor League regular seasons draw to a close, it seems like a pretty good time to take a look at Atlanta's "feeder" depth chart going forward. Below is When Sid Slid's take on the kids Braves fans may be getting to know much better in the near future. Everyone should notice a handful of these names as several have gotten their feet wet with the big club this season. You'll likely notice a few more of them mentioned during game telecasts in the coming days as the big league roster expands for the last month of the regular season.
Each player's highest completed minor league level is noted, as well as WSS's expected ETA for them. Pitchers' ceilings are also noted (potential future MLB rotation slots for SPs as well as potential future pen roles for RPs) - as always, these are to be taken as "soft" expectations since it's typically much tougher to project their capability to adjust and develop...PARTICULARLY the younger ones.
We'll name our Braves' MiLB Pitcher and Hitter Of The Year soon as well as take a closer look at quite a few of these kids in the coming weeks.
(Players in bold are already on the MLB 40-Man Roster, and Constanza, Gattis, Pastornicky, Terdoslavich, Cunningham, and Gosselin each have accrued MLB Service Time.)
Starting Pitchers
1. Graham, J. R. (AA) (1-2) (2014)
2. Sims, Lucas (A) (1-2) (2016)
3. Cabrera, Mauricio (A) (1-2) (2016)
4. Hursh, Jason (A) (2-3) (2015)
5. Gilmartin, Sean (AAA) (3-4) (2014)
6. Northcraft, Aaron (AA) (3-4) (2014)
7. Schlosser, Gus (AA) (3-4) (2016)
8. Ubiera, Andry ® (1-2) (2016)
9. Thomas, Ian (AA) (3-4) (2015)
10. Hale, David (AAA) (3-4) (2014)
11. Martin, Cody (AAA) (3-4) (2014)
12. Otero, Andy ® (2-3) (2016)
13. Salazar, Carlos ® (2-3) (2016)
14. Torres, Yeralf ® (2-3) (2016)
15. Jones, Jesus ® (2-3) (2016)
16. Grosser, Alec ® (3-4) (2016)
17. Silva, Aldo ® (2-3) (2017)
Relief Pitchers
1. Graham, J. R. (AA) (CL) (2014)
2. Buchter, Ryan (AAA) (CL) (2014)
3. Simmons, Shae (AA) (CL) (2015)
4. Harper, Ryne (AA) (CL) (2014)
5. Hursh, Jason (A) (2015)
6. Cornely, John (A+) (SU) (2015)
7. Hale, David (AAA) (SU)(2014)
8. Obispo, Wirfin (AAA) (SU) (2014)
9. Lamm, Mark (AAA) (SU) (2014)
10. Jaime, Juan (AA) (SU) (2014)
11. Merejo, Luis ® (SU) (2014)
12. Perez, Carlos (A+) (SU) (2015)
13. Pfisterer, Eric (A) (SU) (2015)
14. Gilmartin, Sean (AAA) (SU) (2014)
15. Northcraft, Aaron (AA) (SU) (2014)
Catchers
1. Gattis, Evan (AAA) (2013)
2. Bethancourt, Christian (AA) (2014)
3. Sanchez, Carlos ® (2016)
4. Murphy, Tanner ® (2016)
5. Martinez, Carlos ® (2016)
First Basemen
1. Terdoslavich, Joey (AAA) (2013)
2. Gattis, Evan (AAA) (2013)
3. Mejia, Ernesto (AAA) (2014)
4. Elander, Josh (AA) (2015)
5. Beckwith, William (AA) (2015)
Second Basemen
1. LaStella, Tommy (AA) (2014)
2. Pastornicky, Tyler (AAA) (2012)
3. Gosselin, Paul (AAA) (2013)
4. Peraza, Jose (A) (2015)
5. Monasterio, Luis ® (2016)
Third Basemen
1. Salcedo, Edwin (AA) (2015)
2. Kubitza, Kyle (A+) (2016)
3. Caratini, Victor ® (2017)
4. Camargo, Johan ® (2017)
5. Azuaje, Franklin ® (2017)
Shortstops
1. Peraza, Jose (A) (2015)
2. Reyes, Elmer (A+) (2015)
3. Reynolds, Mikey ® (2015)
4. Castro, Daniel (A+) (2016)
5. Camargo, Johan ® (2016)
Left Fielders
1. Terdoslavich, Joey (AAA) (2013)
2. Constanza, Jose (AAA) (2012)
3. Elander, Josh (AA) (2015)
4. Hefflinger, Robby (AA) (2015)
5. Estevez, Kelvin ® (2016)
Center Fielders
1. Cunningham, Todd (AAA) (2013
2. Wren, Kyle (A+) (2015)
3. Lipka, Matt (AA) (2015)
4. Reyes, Victor ® (2016)
5. Sanchez, Fernelys ® (2016)
Right Fielders
1. Cunningham, Todd (AAA) (2013)
2. Wren, Kyle (A+) (2015)
3. Hefflinger, Robby (AA) (2015)
4. Rohm, David (A+) (2015)
5. Morel, Jose ® (2016)
Each player's highest completed minor league level is noted, as well as WSS's expected ETA for them. Pitchers' ceilings are also noted (potential future MLB rotation slots for SPs as well as potential future pen roles for RPs) - as always, these are to be taken as "soft" expectations since it's typically much tougher to project their capability to adjust and develop...PARTICULARLY the younger ones.
We'll name our Braves' MiLB Pitcher and Hitter Of The Year soon as well as take a closer look at quite a few of these kids in the coming weeks.
(Players in bold are already on the MLB 40-Man Roster, and Constanza, Gattis, Pastornicky, Terdoslavich, Cunningham, and Gosselin each have accrued MLB Service Time.)
Starting Pitchers
1. Graham, J. R. (AA) (1-2) (2014)
2. Sims, Lucas (A) (1-2) (2016)
3. Cabrera, Mauricio (A) (1-2) (2016)
4. Hursh, Jason (A) (2-3) (2015)
5. Gilmartin, Sean (AAA) (3-4) (2014)
6. Northcraft, Aaron (AA) (3-4) (2014)
7. Schlosser, Gus (AA) (3-4) (2016)
8. Ubiera, Andry ® (1-2) (2016)
9. Thomas, Ian (AA) (3-4) (2015)
10. Hale, David (AAA) (3-4) (2014)
11. Martin, Cody (AAA) (3-4) (2014)
12. Otero, Andy ® (2-3) (2016)
13. Salazar, Carlos ® (2-3) (2016)
14. Torres, Yeralf ® (2-3) (2016)
15. Jones, Jesus ® (2-3) (2016)
16. Grosser, Alec ® (3-4) (2016)
17. Silva, Aldo ® (2-3) (2017)
Relief Pitchers
1. Graham, J. R. (AA) (CL) (2014)
2. Buchter, Ryan (AAA) (CL) (2014)
3. Simmons, Shae (AA) (CL) (2015)
4. Harper, Ryne (AA) (CL) (2014)
5. Hursh, Jason (A) (2015)
6. Cornely, John (A+) (SU) (2015)
7. Hale, David (AAA) (SU)(2014)
8. Obispo, Wirfin (AAA) (SU) (2014)
9. Lamm, Mark (AAA) (SU) (2014)
10. Jaime, Juan (AA) (SU) (2014)
11. Merejo, Luis ® (SU) (2014)
12. Perez, Carlos (A+) (SU) (2015)
13. Pfisterer, Eric (A) (SU) (2015)
14. Gilmartin, Sean (AAA) (SU) (2014)
15. Northcraft, Aaron (AA) (SU) (2014)
Catchers
1. Gattis, Evan (AAA) (2013)
2. Bethancourt, Christian (AA) (2014)
3. Sanchez, Carlos ® (2016)
4. Murphy, Tanner ® (2016)
5. Martinez, Carlos ® (2016)
First Basemen
1. Terdoslavich, Joey (AAA) (2013)
2. Gattis, Evan (AAA) (2013)
3. Mejia, Ernesto (AAA) (2014)
4. Elander, Josh (AA) (2015)
5. Beckwith, William (AA) (2015)
Second Basemen
1. LaStella, Tommy (AA) (2014)
2. Pastornicky, Tyler (AAA) (2012)
3. Gosselin, Paul (AAA) (2013)
4. Peraza, Jose (A) (2015)
5. Monasterio, Luis ® (2016)
Third Basemen
1. Salcedo, Edwin (AA) (2015)
2. Kubitza, Kyle (A+) (2016)
3. Caratini, Victor ® (2017)
4. Camargo, Johan ® (2017)
5. Azuaje, Franklin ® (2017)
Shortstops
1. Peraza, Jose (A) (2015)
2. Reyes, Elmer (A+) (2015)
3. Reynolds, Mikey ® (2015)
4. Castro, Daniel (A+) (2016)
5. Camargo, Johan ® (2016)
Left Fielders
1. Terdoslavich, Joey (AAA) (2013)
2. Constanza, Jose (AAA) (2012)
3. Elander, Josh (AA) (2015)
4. Hefflinger, Robby (AA) (2015)
5. Estevez, Kelvin ® (2016)
Center Fielders
1. Cunningham, Todd (AAA) (2013
2. Wren, Kyle (A+) (2015)
3. Lipka, Matt (AA) (2015)
4. Reyes, Victor ® (2016)
5. Sanchez, Fernelys ® (2016)
Right Fielders
1. Cunningham, Todd (AAA) (2013)
2. Wren, Kyle (A+) (2015)
3. Hefflinger, Robby (AA) (2015)
4. Rohm, David (A+) (2015)
5. Morel, Jose ® (2016)
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Reading The Tea Leaves
Seventeen days until Opening Day and counting quickly. While many questions have been answered, several interesting ones have arisen as well. We'll address the three that most followers felt were the most important first because at least two that have developed since camp opened have the potential of being those "franchise-shaping" types.
1.) Has Julio Teheran's time finally come, and can he "hold down the fort" until Brandon Beachy's healthy?
We always need to be careful about how much weight we put on spring numbers. That said, I don't feel I'm going out on a limb when I say it absolutely is his time and Brandon can take all the time he needs to make sure he's ready. I'm not talking June - he's got until around July 31st to be ready to go. Brandon doesn't need to rush anything, he just needs to be able to give the team 5-6 competitive innings come the non-waiver trade deadline so Frank Wren can move Paul Maholm for a prospect or two. While Julio's numbers have been impressive (14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 2 earned runs on 4 hits allowed, .087 Batting Average Against, and an 18/4 K/BB Ratio), it's more about the things you just "see" when watching his starts - how he's carried himself and gone about his work that tells the tale. He faced a Tigers lineup with Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder, Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta last Thursday and allowed 3 hits (none for extra bases) in 4 IP with 5 Ks. He followed that up by no-hitting a weaker Cardinals lineup for 5 innings two days ago. What the typical box score numbers don't reflect that really speaks volumes is the fact that he's only needed 189 pitches to get through his 14 IP, and 157 of those have been for strikes. He's not nibbling, not wasting pitches, trusting his stuff and just attacking hitters. Not only is he "ready", we may be about to see the Julio Teheran everyone expected two years ago.
2.) Can Andrelton Simmons adjust and be "the straw that stirs the drink" in the leadoff spot?
While most of his ABs have come in WBC games for the Dutch entry, Simmons will be just fine at the top of this lineup. Through 27 ABs, his line is .370/.400/.704/1.104 with 3 2Bs and 2 HRs amongst his 10 hits, all from the leadoff spot. For all the reservations many have about the tournament, delivering clutch hits (his 2 run bomb tied their last contest in the 8th inning, sparking their surprising elimination of Cuba) while playing in what many foreign players see as their true World Series has to have his confidence at its highest point ever.
3.) How bad will including Martin Prado in the deal to land Justin Upton hurt, and can some mixture of Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson keep 3B from becoming a "black hole"?
While the OBPs are the expected relatively low numbers for each - .324 for Johnson, .316 for Francisco - they're more than acceptable when you consider Fredi hasn't been using them as a strict platoon, rotating their starts regardless of who the opposing SP is every day. Both players are slugging .500 or better, and they've combined for 3 2Bs, 4 HRs, and 16 RBIs in 72 ABs. That should translate to 25+ 2Bs and 20-25 HRs from the 8 hole. Almost as importantly, both guys have played solid defense (particularly Francisco) - Johnson has made the only 3 errors the platoon has been charged with in 143 innings.
The SPs other than Hudson have picked up right where they left off last season, and while Huddy's struggled a little bit early, March has typically always been more about getting his work in and getting his pitch count up - the numbers on the back of his baseball card have always spoken for themselves, and you know what you'll get from him as long as he's healthy. Eric O'Flaherty and Jordan Walden have been brought along slowly since they were a little nicked up early, but with the extended camp that comes along every WBC year they should be fine. Jonny Venters struggled with his control last night, but he wasn't used as he normally will be - he came in to retire one batter with 2 outs in the 5th inning after Medlen took a liner off his arm, then was sent back out after sitting down. He's got plenty of time left to get that nasty power sinker grooved before anything counts.
This leads us to the two very interesting questions I have for the future. They're not in need of resolution just yet, but they could prove to be serious game changers.
1.) How will the organization choose to handle Tim Hudson beyond 2013, and how does that shape the rotation moving forward?
People consistently underrate Tim Hudson. While he's not the prototypical "Ace" with a big fastball and wipeout breaking ball and high K rate, he's Huddy and his contributions reach much further. He's as consistently good as ANY SP in the game. No stage is too big for him, no lineup's too "stacked" regardless of how many lefties they put in the box against him. Quite possibly the most important thing about him is that when other SPs begin running out of gas later in the year when the innings start to pile up, a bit of fatigue often appears to make his sinker even more effective. However, his deal is up following this season, and there's still a glut of MLB-ready SPs in the organization behind him even after shipping Randall Delgado away. Sean Gilmartin is Mike Minor-Lite, and Alex Wood can be pushed at will if the organization decides to replace Huddy with Beachy and still have a second southpaw in the rotation to replace Maholm. J. R. Graham is the "real deal", and could likely leapfrog both of them and force Wren and Fredi to only utilize one LHSP in the rotation sooner rather than later. While it's true that you can never have enough pitching, the only question I feel is worthy of concern is whether Medlen, Minor, or Beachy are ready to assume Huddy's role as the leader of the staff that you can run out there against another team's "Ace" 3 times in a playoff series if needed. I think we'll find out that they are (at least Meds and Minor) by the All-Star Break this year and that Tim's offered a position with the organization to help the young guys if he'd like to stick around, but that the money to extend his playing days will be better spent on extensions for the younger crew.
And, the biggest and most controversial question...
2.) What in the world do you do with Brian McCann, especially if he hits like we expect him to come mid-April?
This year was supposed to mark the transition from "Chipper's team" to "Brian's team". Mac has been steadily assuming the clubhouse leader role more and more over the last 2-3 seasons. He's a "hometown hero", and was always seen as the pretty obvious choice as the new "face" of the organization. Unfortunately as a 30 year old Catcher with a body beginning to slowly break down, it's tough to pay him the money a bat like his commands when you can't play him anywhere else defensively and there's no DH in the NL. Again, I hate putting much stock in spring numbers, but when they're combined with the reviews he's gotten thus far, I'm beginning to believe that the future is "El Oso Blanco" and that future is upon us. I (among many) will be watching closely tonight while Evan Gattis is behind the plate with Minor pitching. Fredi's consistently been quoted as being much more impressed with his defense than he expected, and Eddie Perez has said since day one that he's up to the challenge of being a starter at the MLB level. Recent rumors have surfaced that the Rangers came calling about Mac before the team exercised his option for this year, but FW wasn't interested at that time. What's different now? There are TWO Uptons in the OF to go with Heyward, Freeman, and Simmons, and Gattis' defense seems to be winning over the opinions that matter. If it were up to me, I'd send Evan down to Gwinnett to start the year with the understanding that the only thing I'm interested in him doing is continuing to get better defensively. $12+ million/year would be awfully tough for me to swallow for McCann going forward, and I've consistently been one of his biggest supporters. My hope is that the "perfect case scenario" plays out - Mac comes back on fire for a month, Jon Daniels is still interested because he has the flexibility of giving Mac regular days off as their DH, and FW can convince him to part with our perfect fit (and the guy they simply can't find a place in their lineup for) and swaps Mac straight up for Mike Olt.
It may very well be a pipe dream, but a 2014 and beyond lineup consisting of ...Simmons, Heyward, J-Up, Freeman, Olt, B. J. Upton, Gattis, and Uggla will absolutely cause lots of sleepless nights for opposing GMs, Managers, Pitching Coaches, and Pitchers, and would leave Frank Wren with LOTS of financial flexibility for the foreseeable future.
1.) Has Julio Teheran's time finally come, and can he "hold down the fort" until Brandon Beachy's healthy?
We always need to be careful about how much weight we put on spring numbers. That said, I don't feel I'm going out on a limb when I say it absolutely is his time and Brandon can take all the time he needs to make sure he's ready. I'm not talking June - he's got until around July 31st to be ready to go. Brandon doesn't need to rush anything, he just needs to be able to give the team 5-6 competitive innings come the non-waiver trade deadline so Frank Wren can move Paul Maholm for a prospect or two. While Julio's numbers have been impressive (14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 2 earned runs on 4 hits allowed, .087 Batting Average Against, and an 18/4 K/BB Ratio), it's more about the things you just "see" when watching his starts - how he's carried himself and gone about his work that tells the tale. He faced a Tigers lineup with Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder, Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta last Thursday and allowed 3 hits (none for extra bases) in 4 IP with 5 Ks. He followed that up by no-hitting a weaker Cardinals lineup for 5 innings two days ago. What the typical box score numbers don't reflect that really speaks volumes is the fact that he's only needed 189 pitches to get through his 14 IP, and 157 of those have been for strikes. He's not nibbling, not wasting pitches, trusting his stuff and just attacking hitters. Not only is he "ready", we may be about to see the Julio Teheran everyone expected two years ago.
2.) Can Andrelton Simmons adjust and be "the straw that stirs the drink" in the leadoff spot?
While most of his ABs have come in WBC games for the Dutch entry, Simmons will be just fine at the top of this lineup. Through 27 ABs, his line is .370/.400/.704/1.104 with 3 2Bs and 2 HRs amongst his 10 hits, all from the leadoff spot. For all the reservations many have about the tournament, delivering clutch hits (his 2 run bomb tied their last contest in the 8th inning, sparking their surprising elimination of Cuba) while playing in what many foreign players see as their true World Series has to have his confidence at its highest point ever.
3.) How bad will including Martin Prado in the deal to land Justin Upton hurt, and can some mixture of Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson keep 3B from becoming a "black hole"?
While the OBPs are the expected relatively low numbers for each - .324 for Johnson, .316 for Francisco - they're more than acceptable when you consider Fredi hasn't been using them as a strict platoon, rotating their starts regardless of who the opposing SP is every day. Both players are slugging .500 or better, and they've combined for 3 2Bs, 4 HRs, and 16 RBIs in 72 ABs. That should translate to 25+ 2Bs and 20-25 HRs from the 8 hole. Almost as importantly, both guys have played solid defense (particularly Francisco) - Johnson has made the only 3 errors the platoon has been charged with in 143 innings.
The SPs other than Hudson have picked up right where they left off last season, and while Huddy's struggled a little bit early, March has typically always been more about getting his work in and getting his pitch count up - the numbers on the back of his baseball card have always spoken for themselves, and you know what you'll get from him as long as he's healthy. Eric O'Flaherty and Jordan Walden have been brought along slowly since they were a little nicked up early, but with the extended camp that comes along every WBC year they should be fine. Jonny Venters struggled with his control last night, but he wasn't used as he normally will be - he came in to retire one batter with 2 outs in the 5th inning after Medlen took a liner off his arm, then was sent back out after sitting down. He's got plenty of time left to get that nasty power sinker grooved before anything counts.
This leads us to the two very interesting questions I have for the future. They're not in need of resolution just yet, but they could prove to be serious game changers.
1.) How will the organization choose to handle Tim Hudson beyond 2013, and how does that shape the rotation moving forward?
People consistently underrate Tim Hudson. While he's not the prototypical "Ace" with a big fastball and wipeout breaking ball and high K rate, he's Huddy and his contributions reach much further. He's as consistently good as ANY SP in the game. No stage is too big for him, no lineup's too "stacked" regardless of how many lefties they put in the box against him. Quite possibly the most important thing about him is that when other SPs begin running out of gas later in the year when the innings start to pile up, a bit of fatigue often appears to make his sinker even more effective. However, his deal is up following this season, and there's still a glut of MLB-ready SPs in the organization behind him even after shipping Randall Delgado away. Sean Gilmartin is Mike Minor-Lite, and Alex Wood can be pushed at will if the organization decides to replace Huddy with Beachy and still have a second southpaw in the rotation to replace Maholm. J. R. Graham is the "real deal", and could likely leapfrog both of them and force Wren and Fredi to only utilize one LHSP in the rotation sooner rather than later. While it's true that you can never have enough pitching, the only question I feel is worthy of concern is whether Medlen, Minor, or Beachy are ready to assume Huddy's role as the leader of the staff that you can run out there against another team's "Ace" 3 times in a playoff series if needed. I think we'll find out that they are (at least Meds and Minor) by the All-Star Break this year and that Tim's offered a position with the organization to help the young guys if he'd like to stick around, but that the money to extend his playing days will be better spent on extensions for the younger crew.
And, the biggest and most controversial question...
2.) What in the world do you do with Brian McCann, especially if he hits like we expect him to come mid-April?
This year was supposed to mark the transition from "Chipper's team" to "Brian's team". Mac has been steadily assuming the clubhouse leader role more and more over the last 2-3 seasons. He's a "hometown hero", and was always seen as the pretty obvious choice as the new "face" of the organization. Unfortunately as a 30 year old Catcher with a body beginning to slowly break down, it's tough to pay him the money a bat like his commands when you can't play him anywhere else defensively and there's no DH in the NL. Again, I hate putting much stock in spring numbers, but when they're combined with the reviews he's gotten thus far, I'm beginning to believe that the future is "El Oso Blanco" and that future is upon us. I (among many) will be watching closely tonight while Evan Gattis is behind the plate with Minor pitching. Fredi's consistently been quoted as being much more impressed with his defense than he expected, and Eddie Perez has said since day one that he's up to the challenge of being a starter at the MLB level. Recent rumors have surfaced that the Rangers came calling about Mac before the team exercised his option for this year, but FW wasn't interested at that time. What's different now? There are TWO Uptons in the OF to go with Heyward, Freeman, and Simmons, and Gattis' defense seems to be winning over the opinions that matter. If it were up to me, I'd send Evan down to Gwinnett to start the year with the understanding that the only thing I'm interested in him doing is continuing to get better defensively. $12+ million/year would be awfully tough for me to swallow for McCann going forward, and I've consistently been one of his biggest supporters. My hope is that the "perfect case scenario" plays out - Mac comes back on fire for a month, Jon Daniels is still interested because he has the flexibility of giving Mac regular days off as their DH, and FW can convince him to part with our perfect fit (and the guy they simply can't find a place in their lineup for) and swaps Mac straight up for Mike Olt.
It may very well be a pipe dream, but a 2014 and beyond lineup consisting of ...Simmons, Heyward, J-Up, Freeman, Olt, B. J. Upton, Gattis, and Uggla will absolutely cause lots of sleepless nights for opposing GMs, Managers, Pitching Coaches, and Pitchers, and would leave Frank Wren with LOTS of financial flexibility for the foreseeable future.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Now That The Dust Has Settled
After Frank Wren's masterful winter of dealing to "replace" franchise icon Chipper Jones, the time has come to shift his attention to locking up the current core of youngsters in an effort to begin a ride resembling the amazing one his current boss and Bobby Cox took Braves' faithful on throughout the 90s and early 2000s. The pieces are in place, now the tough work starts - keeping them together for an extended period of time.
As tough a pill to swallow as including Martin Prado in the deal to land Justin Upton was, moving his salary has created significant payroll flexibility for 2013, and with reports that the expected additional revenues (somewhere around $28 million) generated for each club from MLB's new national TV deal that begins in 2014 on the way, it's time to get down to business and see what kind of common ground Wren can establish with the representatives for Upton, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, and possibly Brian McCann as well.
Multiple sources have led Braves' "insiders" to the understanding that the somewhat flexible salary cap for 2013 was around $98 million. While things don't work in a vaccuum, for the sake of this column let's assume moving forward that the entire $28 million/year in additional revenues generated from MLB's new national TV deal will make future "caps" around $126 million. Following the Upton/Prado trade, my calculations place the current commitments roughly $10.3 million below that figure. Combine that with the additional $6.5 million created when Paul Maholm is either traded at the deadline (if Brandon Beachy returns to health on schedule) or at the end of the season when his contract is up and Wren currently has roughly $45 million to play with. If Beachy proves healthy and Medlen, Minor, and Julio Teheran take the steps forward the organization believes they will, you could conceivably add Tim Hudson's expiring $9 million commitment to that if they feel one of the other young pitching prospects (J. R. Graham, Sean Gilmartin, or Alex Wood) could capably fill the role of 5th starter next season for a total of $54 million to spend on extensions. Picking 2017 as an arbitrary date for our goal of 5 years together (if for no other reason than that's when B. J. Upton's franchise-record deal ends), here's my take on the advice I'd offer if Frank had me on his speed dial...
Using the extensions Upton and other hometown hero Brian McCann agreed to early in their careers as a template, I'd think it would be both reasonable and prudent to approach Heyward's representation first. Providing him with the significant financial certainty a 4 year $38.5 million extension would provide him in exchange for his first two free-agent seasons would seem "fair" for both sides. Following McCann's "schedule" and allowing for some inflation would point to a $2 million signing bonus with salaries of $6.5 million in 2014, $7.5 million in 2015, $9.5 million in 2016, and $13 million in 2017.
Many of the national pundits have argued that Kimbrel is one of the most valuable pieces in baseball today given his age, track-record, and status as THE current best closer in the game. Assuming Kimbrel sees a similar salary bump between his $590,000 renewal salary this season to around Heyward's $3,650,000 number this season, offer the same ladder to him - a 4 year $29 million extension with a $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $3.5 million in 2014, $6.5 million in 2015, $7.5 million in 2016 and $9.5 million in 2017.
I'd offer Freeman and Medlen the same extensions as Kimbrel. This would bring us to $25 million of the available $45 million (or $54 million) committed to those four players in 2014.
While I agree there's some risk involved in extending aging Catchers, the feeling I've gotten is that most of the players feel that McCann is going to be "that guy" that evolves into the next Chipper in the clubhouse. If he's willing to play out his current deal and test the free-agent waters following this season that's understandable, but it can't possibly be a bad idea to offer him a 4 year $25 million dollar extension with the 4th year being a vesting option based on health/ABs/games played for an additional $8 million with a $1 million buyout. That's $33 million in commitments.
I'd then approach Justin's representatives and offer a 2 year $31 million extension to his current deal with a $2 million signing bonus, which would give him the same 2016 and 2017 salaries as B. J. to hopefully eliminate any future animosity over their salaries. That's $35 million spent in 2014.
You take the additional $10 million left over and invest it to help pay for arbitration raises for the other players (Simmons, Beachy, Minor, Teheran,) and you're looking at having the entire OF, Freeman, Kimbrel, McCann, Medlen, 3 other SPs, and Simmons locked up through 2017 with Dan Uggla locked up through 2015 and his $13.25 million available to go towards paying for Justin's additional 2 seasons. If next season reveals that neither Chris Johnson or Juan Francisco provides a long-term 3B option, you still have Hudson's expiring money to go towards addressing that potential issue if it arises.
The overall future salary commitments would then look like this:
2014 - $67,450,000
2015 - $77,200,000
2016 - $70,950,000
2017 - $82,450,000
leaving plenty of "wiggle room" for renewals, arbitration raises, potential future additions at 2B and 3B, potential extensions for Simmons/Beachy/Minor, and even a little money to chase significant rotation or bullpen help via free-agency if needed.
As tough a pill to swallow as including Martin Prado in the deal to land Justin Upton was, moving his salary has created significant payroll flexibility for 2013, and with reports that the expected additional revenues (somewhere around $28 million) generated for each club from MLB's new national TV deal that begins in 2014 on the way, it's time to get down to business and see what kind of common ground Wren can establish with the representatives for Upton, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, and possibly Brian McCann as well.
Multiple sources have led Braves' "insiders" to the understanding that the somewhat flexible salary cap for 2013 was around $98 million. While things don't work in a vaccuum, for the sake of this column let's assume moving forward that the entire $28 million/year in additional revenues generated from MLB's new national TV deal will make future "caps" around $126 million. Following the Upton/Prado trade, my calculations place the current commitments roughly $10.3 million below that figure. Combine that with the additional $6.5 million created when Paul Maholm is either traded at the deadline (if Brandon Beachy returns to health on schedule) or at the end of the season when his contract is up and Wren currently has roughly $45 million to play with. If Beachy proves healthy and Medlen, Minor, and Julio Teheran take the steps forward the organization believes they will, you could conceivably add Tim Hudson's expiring $9 million commitment to that if they feel one of the other young pitching prospects (J. R. Graham, Sean Gilmartin, or Alex Wood) could capably fill the role of 5th starter next season for a total of $54 million to spend on extensions. Picking 2017 as an arbitrary date for our goal of 5 years together (if for no other reason than that's when B. J. Upton's franchise-record deal ends), here's my take on the advice I'd offer if Frank had me on his speed dial...
Using the extensions Upton and other hometown hero Brian McCann agreed to early in their careers as a template, I'd think it would be both reasonable and prudent to approach Heyward's representation first. Providing him with the significant financial certainty a 4 year $38.5 million extension would provide him in exchange for his first two free-agent seasons would seem "fair" for both sides. Following McCann's "schedule" and allowing for some inflation would point to a $2 million signing bonus with salaries of $6.5 million in 2014, $7.5 million in 2015, $9.5 million in 2016, and $13 million in 2017.
Many of the national pundits have argued that Kimbrel is one of the most valuable pieces in baseball today given his age, track-record, and status as THE current best closer in the game. Assuming Kimbrel sees a similar salary bump between his $590,000 renewal salary this season to around Heyward's $3,650,000 number this season, offer the same ladder to him - a 4 year $29 million extension with a $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $3.5 million in 2014, $6.5 million in 2015, $7.5 million in 2016 and $9.5 million in 2017.
I'd offer Freeman and Medlen the same extensions as Kimbrel. This would bring us to $25 million of the available $45 million (or $54 million) committed to those four players in 2014.
While I agree there's some risk involved in extending aging Catchers, the feeling I've gotten is that most of the players feel that McCann is going to be "that guy" that evolves into the next Chipper in the clubhouse. If he's willing to play out his current deal and test the free-agent waters following this season that's understandable, but it can't possibly be a bad idea to offer him a 4 year $25 million dollar extension with the 4th year being a vesting option based on health/ABs/games played for an additional $8 million with a $1 million buyout. That's $33 million in commitments.
I'd then approach Justin's representatives and offer a 2 year $31 million extension to his current deal with a $2 million signing bonus, which would give him the same 2016 and 2017 salaries as B. J. to hopefully eliminate any future animosity over their salaries. That's $35 million spent in 2014.
You take the additional $10 million left over and invest it to help pay for arbitration raises for the other players (Simmons, Beachy, Minor, Teheran,) and you're looking at having the entire OF, Freeman, Kimbrel, McCann, Medlen, 3 other SPs, and Simmons locked up through 2017 with Dan Uggla locked up through 2015 and his $13.25 million available to go towards paying for Justin's additional 2 seasons. If next season reveals that neither Chris Johnson or Juan Francisco provides a long-term 3B option, you still have Hudson's expiring money to go towards addressing that potential issue if it arises.
The overall future salary commitments would then look like this:
2014 - $67,450,000
2015 - $77,200,000
2016 - $70,950,000
2017 - $82,450,000
leaving plenty of "wiggle room" for renewals, arbitration raises, potential future additions at 2B and 3B, potential extensions for Simmons/Beachy/Minor, and even a little money to chase significant rotation or bullpen help via free-agency if needed.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
A "Flawed" System...Seriously???
We all hear many of the same things this time of year when frequenting various message boards - "Our GM is crazy", "Our ownership sucks", "We're going to be terrible next season because we didn't sign _______", and the one that really eats at many longtime Braves fans "Our system is flawed". I've always found that one pretty comical, particularly when hearing another Braves fan make that statement. The Braves have consistently been in the middle of the pack salary wise over recent years, but continue to put a competitive team on the field year in and year out.
Just for a little fun, let's take a look at 2012. The following numbers provide player salaries spent per win last season (salary info is opening day commitments provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts).
2012 MLB Salaries Per Win
Washington - 98 wins - $92,534,929 = $944,233.97/win
Cincinnati - 97 wins - $87,826,167 = $905,424.40/win
Yankees - 95 wins - $209,792,900 = $2,208,346.32/win
San Francisco - 94 wins - $131,355,298 = $1,397,396.79/win
Oakland - 94 wins - $52,873,000 = $562,478.72/win
Atlanta - 94 wins - $93,529,667 = $994,996.46/win
Texas - 93 wins - $120,836,000 = $1,299,311.83/win
Baltimore - 93 wins - $84,102,333 = $904,326.16/win
Tampa Bay - 90 wins - $63,627,200 = $706,968.89/win
Anaheim - 89 wins - $151,381,000 = $1,700,910.11/win
Detroit - 88 wins - $133,475,000 = $1,516,761.36/win
St.Louis - 88 wins - $111,858,500 = $1,271,119.32/win
Los Angeles - 86 wins - $105,419,833 = $1,225,812.01/win
Chicago White Sox - 85 wins - $97,669,500 = $1,149,052.94/win
Milwaukee - 83 wins - $98,150,833 = $1,182,540.16/win
Philadelphia - 81 wins - $172,093,902 = $2,124,616.07/win
Arizona - 81 wins - $75,417,833 = $931,084.36/win
The teams that finished with losing records in 2012 were as follows...
Pittsburgh - 79 wins - $51,932,333 = $657,371.30/win
San Diego - 76 wins - $55,621,900 = $731,867.11/win
Seattle - 75 wins - $84,928,100 = $1,132,374.67/win
NY Mets - 74 wins - $94,508,822 = $1,277,146.24/win
Toronto - 73 wins - $83,739,200 = $1,147,112.33/win
Kansas City - 72 wins - $64,001,725 = $888,912.85/win
Boston - 69 wins - $175,249,119 = $2,539,842.30/win
Miami - 69 wins - $101,628,000 = $1,472,869.57/win
Cleveland - 68 wins - $65,430,300 = $962,210.29/win
Minnesota - 66 wins - $100,435,000 = $1,521,742.42/win
Colorado - 64 wins - $81,135,571 = $1,267,743.30/win
Chicago Cubs - 61 wins - $109,316,000 = $1,792,065.57/win
Houston - 55 wins - $60,799,000 = $1,105,436.36/win
That's an average of $1,238,958.42 per win for the $3,010,668,965 spent by all 30 teams. Seventeen MLB teams finished with .500 or better records last season, and roughly half (actually 9) of those won 90 or more games. Teams that finished at or above .500 in 2012 paid $1,230,833.16 per win, and teams that won 90+ games paid $1,104,336.67 per win.
The 2012 Atlanta Braves paid 80% of the average investment per win compared to the league average figure. Furthermore, they paid 81% of the average investment per win compared to the average paid by teams finishing above.500, and 90% of the average investment per win compared to the average paid by teams that finished the season with 90+ wins.
That's fine you say, but why aren't they doing more with less like the Rays or the A's? Braves fans tend to hate the stathead crowd, but Moneyball was written about Oakland for a reason - Billy Beane STILL gets more out of less than anyone in the game. Tampa's #2 SP (James Shields), HR leader (B. J. Upton), and franchise 3B (Evan Longoria) were each playing for SIGNIFICANTLY below-market contracts, and Shields and Upton have since been deemed to be too expensive and subsequently dealt away or allowed to leave.
If you exclude those two organizations, no one does it better than the Braves. Of the teams finishing above .500, the figures show that Washington, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Arizona each paid less than the Braves per win last season. However, none of those teams has been close to being considered a contender on a consistent basis like Atlanta has. A deeper look at the "bad" teams shines an even brighter light on how well the Braves do things - yes, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Kansas City paid less per win than Atlanta in 2012, but they've been perennial "doormats" for years. Powerhouses like Houston (110% of Atlanta's investment per win), Seattle (112% of Atlanta's investment per win), Minnesota (135% of Atlanta's investment per win), and the Cubs (144% of Atlanta's investment per win) all paid significantly more for the wins they got last season.
The Braves' system is "flawed"??? It sure doesn't look that way to me. Only three teams won more games than the Braves did last season, and only one of those (the suddenly budget-concious, formerly free-spending Yankees) got there by throwing big money at big names. It appears as though Frank Wren should be one of those prominently mentioned in conversations concerning GMs that do more with less.
Bravo Frank...keep grinding!!!
Just for a little fun, let's take a look at 2012. The following numbers provide player salaries spent per win last season (salary info is opening day commitments provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts).
2012 MLB Salaries Per Win
Washington - 98 wins - $92,534,929 = $944,233.97/win
Cincinnati - 97 wins - $87,826,167 = $905,424.40/win
Yankees - 95 wins - $209,792,900 = $2,208,346.32/win
San Francisco - 94 wins - $131,355,298 = $1,397,396.79/win
Oakland - 94 wins - $52,873,000 = $562,478.72/win
Atlanta - 94 wins - $93,529,667 = $994,996.46/win
Texas - 93 wins - $120,836,000 = $1,299,311.83/win
Baltimore - 93 wins - $84,102,333 = $904,326.16/win
Tampa Bay - 90 wins - $63,627,200 = $706,968.89/win
Anaheim - 89 wins - $151,381,000 = $1,700,910.11/win
Detroit - 88 wins - $133,475,000 = $1,516,761.36/win
St.Louis - 88 wins - $111,858,500 = $1,271,119.32/win
Los Angeles - 86 wins - $105,419,833 = $1,225,812.01/win
Chicago White Sox - 85 wins - $97,669,500 = $1,149,052.94/win
Milwaukee - 83 wins - $98,150,833 = $1,182,540.16/win
Philadelphia - 81 wins - $172,093,902 = $2,124,616.07/win
Arizona - 81 wins - $75,417,833 = $931,084.36/win
The teams that finished with losing records in 2012 were as follows...
Pittsburgh - 79 wins - $51,932,333 = $657,371.30/win
San Diego - 76 wins - $55,621,900 = $731,867.11/win
Seattle - 75 wins - $84,928,100 = $1,132,374.67/win
NY Mets - 74 wins - $94,508,822 = $1,277,146.24/win
Toronto - 73 wins - $83,739,200 = $1,147,112.33/win
Kansas City - 72 wins - $64,001,725 = $888,912.85/win
Boston - 69 wins - $175,249,119 = $2,539,842.30/win
Miami - 69 wins - $101,628,000 = $1,472,869.57/win
Cleveland - 68 wins - $65,430,300 = $962,210.29/win
Minnesota - 66 wins - $100,435,000 = $1,521,742.42/win
Colorado - 64 wins - $81,135,571 = $1,267,743.30/win
Chicago Cubs - 61 wins - $109,316,000 = $1,792,065.57/win
Houston - 55 wins - $60,799,000 = $1,105,436.36/win
That's an average of $1,238,958.42 per win for the $3,010,668,965 spent by all 30 teams. Seventeen MLB teams finished with .500 or better records last season, and roughly half (actually 9) of those won 90 or more games. Teams that finished at or above .500 in 2012 paid $1,230,833.16 per win, and teams that won 90+ games paid $1,104,336.67 per win.
The 2012 Atlanta Braves paid 80% of the average investment per win compared to the league average figure. Furthermore, they paid 81% of the average investment per win compared to the average paid by teams finishing above.500, and 90% of the average investment per win compared to the average paid by teams that finished the season with 90+ wins.
That's fine you say, but why aren't they doing more with less like the Rays or the A's? Braves fans tend to hate the stathead crowd, but Moneyball was written about Oakland for a reason - Billy Beane STILL gets more out of less than anyone in the game. Tampa's #2 SP (James Shields), HR leader (B. J. Upton), and franchise 3B (Evan Longoria) were each playing for SIGNIFICANTLY below-market contracts, and Shields and Upton have since been deemed to be too expensive and subsequently dealt away or allowed to leave.
If you exclude those two organizations, no one does it better than the Braves. Of the teams finishing above .500, the figures show that Washington, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Arizona each paid less than the Braves per win last season. However, none of those teams has been close to being considered a contender on a consistent basis like Atlanta has. A deeper look at the "bad" teams shines an even brighter light on how well the Braves do things - yes, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Kansas City paid less per win than Atlanta in 2012, but they've been perennial "doormats" for years. Powerhouses like Houston (110% of Atlanta's investment per win), Seattle (112% of Atlanta's investment per win), Minnesota (135% of Atlanta's investment per win), and the Cubs (144% of Atlanta's investment per win) all paid significantly more for the wins they got last season.
The Braves' system is "flawed"??? It sure doesn't look that way to me. Only three teams won more games than the Braves did last season, and only one of those (the suddenly budget-concious, formerly free-spending Yankees) got there by throwing big money at big names. It appears as though Frank Wren should be one of those prominently mentioned in conversations concerning GMs that do more with less.
Bravo Frank...keep grinding!!!
Sunday, December 16, 2012
When Sid Slid's 2013 Atlanta Braves' Top Prospects
2013 Top 20
1.) Julio Teheran, RHSP - Gwinnett - 22 - 6'2", 175
2.) J. R. Graham, RHSP - Gwinnett - 23 - 6'0", 185
3.) Evan Gattis, LF/1B/C - Gwinnett - 26 - 6'4", 230
4.) Mauricio Cabrera, RHSP - Rome - 19 - 6'2", 180
5.) Sean Gilmartin, LHSP - Gwinnett - 23 - 6'2", 190
6.) Lucas Sims, RHSP - Rome - 19 - 6'2", 195
7.) Alex Wood, LHSP - Lynchburg - 22 - 6'4", 215
8.) Jose Peraza, SS - Rome - 19 - 5'11", 167
9.) Zeke Spruill, RHSP - Gwinnett - 23 - 6'5", 190
10.) Nick Ahmed, SS - Mississippi - 23 - 6'3", 205
11.) Christian Bethancourt, C - Mississippi - 21 - 6'2", 219
12.) Aaron Northcraft, RHSP - Mississippi - 23 - 6'4", 225
13.) Tommy La Stella, 2B - Mississippi - 24 - 5'11", 185
14.) Luis Merejo, LHSP - Rome - 18 - 6'0", 175
15.) Todd Cunningham, OF - Gwinnett - 24 - 6'0", 200
16.) Cody Martin, RHSP - Mississippi - 23 - 6'2", 210
17.) Edward Salcedo, 3B - Mississippi - 23 - 6'3", 195
18.) William Beckwith, 1B/LF - Lynchburg - 22 - 6'2", 220
19.) Josh Elander, C - Rome - 22 - 6'1", 215
20.) Juan Jaime, RHRP - Mississippi - 25 - 6'1", 230
Honorable Mention
David Hale, RHP, Gwinnett; Navery Moore, RHP, Lynchburg; Carlos Perez, LHP, Lynchburg; Joey Terdoslavich, 1B, Gwinnett; Ross Hefley, 2B, Lynchburg
Youngsters To Keep Your Eye On
Fernelys Sanchez, OF, Rome; Connor Lien, OF, Rome; Andy Otero, RHP, GCL Braves; Iosif Bernal, OF, GCL Braves; Jose Rosario, RHP, GCL Braves; Luis Monasterio, 2B, GCL Braves
Another year, same old tune - the numbers on the calendar change, but the storyline looks familiar. An organization long known for its development of good pitching has a top prospect list that's extremely top-heavy with Pitchers. GM Frank Wren vowed to return the farm system to one known for continually producing a steady stream of arms capable of helping make the big league club remain competitive. He and his associates have certainly accomplished that, having developed and graduated such recent high-end talent as Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, Craig Kimbrel, and Jonny Venters, and there seems to be plenty more where that came from.
Diehard fans and prospect watchers feel like Julio Teheran has taken forever to arrive, many even teetering on the edge of losing faith that he'll ever live up to the hype. They'll soon find out that he's been worth the wait. Hanson was traded in December to allow Julio and Delgado to compete for the final spot in the 2013 rotation, and after tinkering with his mechanics last season minor adjustments to them have been made to return him to his "old self" (prior to turning 21, that is). Some of these adjustments will be discussed when our Top 10 Prospect Capsules comes out within the next week.
As with any good story this one has multiple significant characters, and if you include Delgado (who is no longer considered a "prospect" despite his limited big league experience) there are six other Pitchers with upsides as # 2 or # 3 starters at worst. Delgado still has significant talent, and we've seen what Mike Minor was able to accomplish once he "got it". Graham and Cabrera are viewed as potential top of the rotation starters (albeit with substantially different ETAs). Gilmartin and Wood have the ability to be pushed quickly if needed, and Lucas Sims will have the luxury of being able to develop at his own pace without being rushed or pressured.
Unfortunately there doesn't appear to be nearly as much to be excited about when it comes to offense. It's a little tough to criticize the organization that has graduated Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons in the last three years, but outside of a couple guys there doesn't look to be much in the pipeline. While non-prospect (and non-Braves farmhand) Juan Francisco has trimmed down and looked impressive in winter ball and "old" prospect Evan Gattis has been a pleasant surprise, the rest of the system looks to be light on potential everyday talent. Both Bethancourt and Salcedo have been considered by many to have the tools to eventually be successful at the big league level, yet both have underwhelmed at the plate so far and questions remain as to whether Salcedo can even remain in the infield (having already been moved off of SS). Combine that with the fact that the fact that the players that have shown promise are likely staring position changes in the face if they remain in the system - Ahmed, Beckwith, and Terdoslavich certainly aren't likely going to displace Simmons and Freeman - the cupboard appears to be pretty bare. One player to monitor closely is Peraza, who has serious upside and is still extremely young. He and Simmons could potentially create the same kind of situation for the Braves in a couple years that Texas has now with Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar.
The organization has seemed to shift focus recently to drafting more athletic players with the hope that the tools they do possess can be sharpened and others can be learned. Many of these draftees also have been guys that are slightly older (often considered to be less risky) college players. While it is great to see kids that can really run, jump, and dive all over the place, the vast majority of success the organization has had has always been in gambling a little more with younger kids with greater upside - Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, Heyward, Freeman, and Simmons all come to mind.
1.) Julio Teheran, RHSP - Gwinnett - 22 - 6'2", 175
2.) J. R. Graham, RHSP - Gwinnett - 23 - 6'0", 185
3.) Evan Gattis, LF/1B/C - Gwinnett - 26 - 6'4", 230
4.) Mauricio Cabrera, RHSP - Rome - 19 - 6'2", 180
5.) Sean Gilmartin, LHSP - Gwinnett - 23 - 6'2", 190
6.) Lucas Sims, RHSP - Rome - 19 - 6'2", 195
7.) Alex Wood, LHSP - Lynchburg - 22 - 6'4", 215
8.) Jose Peraza, SS - Rome - 19 - 5'11", 167
9.) Zeke Spruill, RHSP - Gwinnett - 23 - 6'5", 190
10.) Nick Ahmed, SS - Mississippi - 23 - 6'3", 205
11.) Christian Bethancourt, C - Mississippi - 21 - 6'2", 219
12.) Aaron Northcraft, RHSP - Mississippi - 23 - 6'4", 225
13.) Tommy La Stella, 2B - Mississippi - 24 - 5'11", 185
14.) Luis Merejo, LHSP - Rome - 18 - 6'0", 175
15.) Todd Cunningham, OF - Gwinnett - 24 - 6'0", 200
16.) Cody Martin, RHSP - Mississippi - 23 - 6'2", 210
17.) Edward Salcedo, 3B - Mississippi - 23 - 6'3", 195
18.) William Beckwith, 1B/LF - Lynchburg - 22 - 6'2", 220
19.) Josh Elander, C - Rome - 22 - 6'1", 215
20.) Juan Jaime, RHRP - Mississippi - 25 - 6'1", 230
Honorable Mention
David Hale, RHP, Gwinnett; Navery Moore, RHP, Lynchburg; Carlos Perez, LHP, Lynchburg; Joey Terdoslavich, 1B, Gwinnett; Ross Hefley, 2B, Lynchburg
Youngsters To Keep Your Eye On
Fernelys Sanchez, OF, Rome; Connor Lien, OF, Rome; Andy Otero, RHP, GCL Braves; Iosif Bernal, OF, GCL Braves; Jose Rosario, RHP, GCL Braves; Luis Monasterio, 2B, GCL Braves
Another year, same old tune - the numbers on the calendar change, but the storyline looks familiar. An organization long known for its development of good pitching has a top prospect list that's extremely top-heavy with Pitchers. GM Frank Wren vowed to return the farm system to one known for continually producing a steady stream of arms capable of helping make the big league club remain competitive. He and his associates have certainly accomplished that, having developed and graduated such recent high-end talent as Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, Craig Kimbrel, and Jonny Venters, and there seems to be plenty more where that came from.
Diehard fans and prospect watchers feel like Julio Teheran has taken forever to arrive, many even teetering on the edge of losing faith that he'll ever live up to the hype. They'll soon find out that he's been worth the wait. Hanson was traded in December to allow Julio and Delgado to compete for the final spot in the 2013 rotation, and after tinkering with his mechanics last season minor adjustments to them have been made to return him to his "old self" (prior to turning 21, that is). Some of these adjustments will be discussed when our Top 10 Prospect Capsules comes out within the next week.
As with any good story this one has multiple significant characters, and if you include Delgado (who is no longer considered a "prospect" despite his limited big league experience) there are six other Pitchers with upsides as # 2 or # 3 starters at worst. Delgado still has significant talent, and we've seen what Mike Minor was able to accomplish once he "got it". Graham and Cabrera are viewed as potential top of the rotation starters (albeit with substantially different ETAs). Gilmartin and Wood have the ability to be pushed quickly if needed, and Lucas Sims will have the luxury of being able to develop at his own pace without being rushed or pressured.
Unfortunately there doesn't appear to be nearly as much to be excited about when it comes to offense. It's a little tough to criticize the organization that has graduated Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons in the last three years, but outside of a couple guys there doesn't look to be much in the pipeline. While non-prospect (and non-Braves farmhand) Juan Francisco has trimmed down and looked impressive in winter ball and "old" prospect Evan Gattis has been a pleasant surprise, the rest of the system looks to be light on potential everyday talent. Both Bethancourt and Salcedo have been considered by many to have the tools to eventually be successful at the big league level, yet both have underwhelmed at the plate so far and questions remain as to whether Salcedo can even remain in the infield (having already been moved off of SS). Combine that with the fact that the fact that the players that have shown promise are likely staring position changes in the face if they remain in the system - Ahmed, Beckwith, and Terdoslavich certainly aren't likely going to displace Simmons and Freeman - the cupboard appears to be pretty bare. One player to monitor closely is Peraza, who has serious upside and is still extremely young. He and Simmons could potentially create the same kind of situation for the Braves in a couple years that Texas has now with Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar.
The organization has seemed to shift focus recently to drafting more athletic players with the hope that the tools they do possess can be sharpened and others can be learned. Many of these draftees also have been guys that are slightly older (often considered to be less risky) college players. While it is great to see kids that can really run, jump, and dive all over the place, the vast majority of success the organization has had has always been in gambling a little more with younger kids with greater upside - Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, Heyward, Freeman, and Simmons all come to mind.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Why The Deck Is So Stacked Against The Braves
Like everyone else, I hear other Braves fans consistently complain that Liberty Media, Frank Wren, and others are simply putting money in their pockets by not spending big dollars on free-agents and having a payroll that ranks right up there with the big boys. The simple fact is they can't possibly compete on that level given today's circumstances.
What in the world would ever make someone think the organization could ever compete with large market franchises? According to the Wall Street Journal (via SNL Financial), while this "large TV market" fans refer to might be reflected in the number of cable subscribers, it certainly has nothing to do with the revenue produced by those viewers. SportSouth is indeed second only to the YES Network in subscribers, but the network's monthly revenue per subscriber lags FAR BEHIND those other "large markets" - almost 6 times less than the revenue per subscriber generated for the Red Sox via NESN.
If you calculate those 2011 numbers, it's easy to see just how bad the Braves' deal is.
Yankees - $33,600,000 per month
Rangers - $21,546,000 per month
Angels - $18,886,000 per month
Mets - $17,612,000 per month
Red Sox - $13,735,000 per month
Dodgers - $13,514,000 per month
Phillies - $9,393,000 per month
Braves - $4,959,000 per month
That doesn't take into account the Dodgers' new deal or the fact that the revenue generated by those other deals increases over time.
Further limiting spending are the ever-dwindling ticket sale numbers. The Braves ranked 21st - yes, 21st - in home attendance percentage in 2012, drawing 2,420,171 fans (29,878/game) according to ESPN's 2012 MLB Attendance Report that can be viewed here http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/sort/homePct.
The Brad Pitt as Billy Beane line from Moneyball comes to mind when looking at those numbers (you even know the line even if you are the biggest scouthead vs. stathead there is) - "The problem we're trying to solve is that there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's fifty feet of crap, and then there's us."
What should this tell Braves fans who continually whine about the decisions Frank Wren makes when it comes to building the team into a contender? That he's doing an awfully good job given the resources at his disposal. Other organizations keep making splashes and headlines, and the Braves keep winning. They've done it without much money to throw at free agents, and without being able to add many of the "can't miss" high-end prospects because they constantly pick long after those future impact players are off the board. There's little question that even though there's been turnover in the scouting and player development departments over the years that these guys know what they're doing. The only times in the last ten years the Braves drafted higher than 23rd overall (Jeff Francoeur in 2002) they landed Jason Heyward at number 14 in 2007 and Mike Minor at number 7 in 2009. They continue to produce impact talent WITHOUT the opportunity to select the "no-brainer" kids like the Harpers, Strasburgs, Prices, Uptons, Mauers, Adrian Gonzalezes, and Josh Hamiltons.
Here's holding out hope that someone will finally be able to pry the team away from corporate ownership and buy their way out of the Braves' dreadful TV contract, because with the exploding revenues in other markets it will only become tougher moving forward. Some organizations are playing with Monopoly money and it will become increasingly tougher to compete consistently without it no matter how good Wren & Company are. We're used to hearing Arthur Blank and even cries for Ted Turner to come back mentioned when this is discussed, but I've got a little different idea that would hopefully help to drive attendance even more. I'd love to see someone organize an investment group somewhat like the Dodgers' crowd and get some of the local heroes involved. How much support might result from including say Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Chipper Jones as minority owners and mouthpieces like Magic Johnson is for Los Angeles? That would be a great Christmas present for the organization and city that would keep on giving for years.
What in the world would ever make someone think the organization could ever compete with large market franchises? According to the Wall Street Journal (via SNL Financial), while this "large TV market" fans refer to might be reflected in the number of cable subscribers, it certainly has nothing to do with the revenue produced by those viewers. SportSouth is indeed second only to the YES Network in subscribers, but the network's monthly revenue per subscriber lags FAR BEHIND those other "large markets" - almost 6 times less than the revenue per subscriber generated for the Red Sox via NESN.
If you calculate those 2011 numbers, it's easy to see just how bad the Braves' deal is.
Yankees - $33,600,000 per month
Rangers - $21,546,000 per month
Angels - $18,886,000 per month
Mets - $17,612,000 per month
Red Sox - $13,735,000 per month
Dodgers - $13,514,000 per month
Phillies - $9,393,000 per month
Braves - $4,959,000 per month
That doesn't take into account the Dodgers' new deal or the fact that the revenue generated by those other deals increases over time.
Further limiting spending are the ever-dwindling ticket sale numbers. The Braves ranked 21st - yes, 21st - in home attendance percentage in 2012, drawing 2,420,171 fans (29,878/game) according to ESPN's 2012 MLB Attendance Report that can be viewed here http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/sort/homePct.
The Brad Pitt as Billy Beane line from Moneyball comes to mind when looking at those numbers (you even know the line even if you are the biggest scouthead vs. stathead there is) - "The problem we're trying to solve is that there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's fifty feet of crap, and then there's us."
What should this tell Braves fans who continually whine about the decisions Frank Wren makes when it comes to building the team into a contender? That he's doing an awfully good job given the resources at his disposal. Other organizations keep making splashes and headlines, and the Braves keep winning. They've done it without much money to throw at free agents, and without being able to add many of the "can't miss" high-end prospects because they constantly pick long after those future impact players are off the board. There's little question that even though there's been turnover in the scouting and player development departments over the years that these guys know what they're doing. The only times in the last ten years the Braves drafted higher than 23rd overall (Jeff Francoeur in 2002) they landed Jason Heyward at number 14 in 2007 and Mike Minor at number 7 in 2009. They continue to produce impact talent WITHOUT the opportunity to select the "no-brainer" kids like the Harpers, Strasburgs, Prices, Uptons, Mauers, Adrian Gonzalezes, and Josh Hamiltons.
Here's holding out hope that someone will finally be able to pry the team away from corporate ownership and buy their way out of the Braves' dreadful TV contract, because with the exploding revenues in other markets it will only become tougher moving forward. Some organizations are playing with Monopoly money and it will become increasingly tougher to compete consistently without it no matter how good Wren & Company are. We're used to hearing Arthur Blank and even cries for Ted Turner to come back mentioned when this is discussed, but I've got a little different idea that would hopefully help to drive attendance even more. I'd love to see someone organize an investment group somewhat like the Dodgers' crowd and get some of the local heroes involved. How much support might result from including say Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Chipper Jones as minority owners and mouthpieces like Magic Johnson is for Los Angeles? That would be a great Christmas present for the organization and city that would keep on giving for years.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Busy Period
No recent articles, just haven't had time. Much to come soon - Chipper's retirement, postseason chatter, and of course...what should Frank Wren do with all that money?!?!?
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Extension Candidate: Reed Johnson
Fans often get lost in discussions about the future daydreaming about the stars they'd trade for or sign to plug into their team's lineup on an every day basis. While those discussions typically provide unlimited interest, the questions many GMs like Frank Wren have to answer that are often just as important are ones that involve their organization's roster spots beyond the main contributors. The players that fill-in regularly, pinch hit, and provide value in other ways many times separate contenders from pretenders. Players that allow a Manager to rest his regulars as often as needed without substantial dropoffs in production are invaluable because they help keep those stars healthy and productive over the course of the brutal grind that is the 162 game MLB regular season.
One such player is one of the newest Braves - Reed Johnson. Johnson is a player that Wren himself said the organization had been after for awhile before landing him (along with Paul Maholm) from the Cubs. Johnson provides value in spades for a contending club. He's another in the mold of a player like Martin Prado whose ultimate worth far exceeds any of his singular talents or tools.
Yes, Johnson can hit - he was in the middle of a great season in Chicago with a .302/.355/.444 triple slash line. Before anyone screams "sample size", it's worth noting that that line isn't exactly a significant departure from his career .282/.344/.414 line covering 3,535 PAs over a ten year span. He's not a "power guy" (62 career HRs) or a "speed guy" (41 SB/27 CS), but that > .400 OPS reflects the fact that he's not strictly a slap hitter and that he's capable of taking extra bases when the opportunity presents itself. He kills LHP - .312/.369/.468 in 1,338 career PAs - which is the only reason Matt Diaz currently held a roster spot prior to going on the DL.
Johnson's true value however lies in the flexibility he provides to go along with the fact that he has a productive bat. The owner of a career .990 Fielding %, that number doesn't seem to fluctuate at all based on where he plays - .987 in RF, .991 in LF, and most importantly .991 in CF. While he's not Michael Bourn or Jason Heyward when covering gaps, he's definitely no Eric Hinske or Matt Diaz either.
As Wren mentioned, he's just the perfect fit for a contending club - a player who provides value with his bat, his glove, and the flexibility he offers with the rest of the roster. He plays multiple positions, and plays them well, offering Fredi Gonzalez the opportunity to give everyone a breather when needed. Combined with Prado, he really gives Fredi tons of options when filling out the lineup card.
Johnson's current contract paid him $1.15 million for 2012. He's shown no obvious signs of decline or reason to be overly concerned with his health, as this year should be his third consecutive season of having appeared in over 100 games. A 2 year offer in the $3 million range would be a great offer for Wren to present him with - Johnson would receive the sense of stability and "belonging" many veterans look for in their final years, and he'd provide the organization with much more flexibility than re-signing a Diaz or Hinske ever could.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Frank Wren With Yet Another Savvy Deal
The deadline has come and gone, and while the Braves didn't land a top of the rotation-type starting Pitcher, Frank Wren proves yet again that he's one of the more underrated GMs in the game. He's been consistent in saying since day one that one of his main goals has been to continue stockpiling arms (everyone's well aware by now that the old saying that "you can never have enough pitching" continues to be at the top of baseball's Ten Commandments"), and that he'll have to be blown away to be convinced to include any of the organization's top-flight arms in any deal that isn't huge.
Ryan Dempster's preference for the Dodgers may well have "saved" him from having to finally part with one of those arms, but his follow-up deal to obtain Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson could easily turn out to be yet another in a line of great "under the radar" deals that continues to keep the organization's ship sailing smoothly.
Maholm definitely isn't one of the sexy big-name guys who's name was bantered about over the couple weeks leading up to the deadline but he's quietly having his best season, and has been doing so in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field on a bad team. He's 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last 7 games (6 starts), and if you exclude his first two starts of the season he's 9-4 with a 3.04 ERA. He's also not the rental Dempster would have been - Maholm's contract provides a club option for 2013 at a very affordable $6.5 million.
The really great thing about this is that it provides much more cost-certainty to help with the 2013 budget while also providing another potential 20 months for Delgado and Teheran to develop without having to be "rushed" if they need it. Odds are they won't, but Maholm is a much nicer option than Jair Jurrjens going forward. (Delgado turned in a dominant start for Gwinnett this afternoon by the way.)
Wren addressed all three of the areas the organization hoped to upgrade before the deadline in one fell swoop. Maholm helps stabilize the rotation, allowing Kris Medlen to return to his important bullpen role following tonight's start (assuming they decide to let Delgado take Tommy Hanson's next two turns while he's on the DL with a sore back). He also added a bat off the bench that kills southpaws AND can play above-average defense at all three OF positions, allowing Fredi Gonzalez to be much more flexible with his bench.
While the deal likely signals the end of both Jurrjens' and Matt Diaz' Braves' tenures, it does so without disturbing the organizational pitching depth chart. Yes Arodys Vizcaino has electric stuff, but he's recovering from Tommy John surgery, and there have long been indications that the organization never believed he'd be able to develop enough stamina or refine a sufficiently strong enough third pitch to remain a starter long-term. I actually took a little time to scour a couple threads concerning the deal where some fans screamed (as always) about how terrible the deal was because Vizcaino was included. His most apparent ceiling remained as a high-leverage reliever assuming he successfully returns from the surgery.
The last month has seen Frank Wren turn two RP prospects into 40% of the rotation moving forward (Maholm and the minor league deal Ben Sheets signed) and an extremely valuable PH/4th OF that the organization has been pursuing for a couple years. He did so without increasing payroll (the Cubs included cash in the deal to "upgrade" to Vizcaino - presumably covering the rest Maholm and Johnson's salaries this season) and did so without including anyone the organization presumed would be a member of its rotation any time in the near future.
If it didn't knock your socks off, so be it, it's a great deal. Bravo Frank Wren. Again.
Ryan Dempster's preference for the Dodgers may well have "saved" him from having to finally part with one of those arms, but his follow-up deal to obtain Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson could easily turn out to be yet another in a line of great "under the radar" deals that continues to keep the organization's ship sailing smoothly.
Maholm definitely isn't one of the sexy big-name guys who's name was bantered about over the couple weeks leading up to the deadline but he's quietly having his best season, and has been doing so in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field on a bad team. He's 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last 7 games (6 starts), and if you exclude his first two starts of the season he's 9-4 with a 3.04 ERA. He's also not the rental Dempster would have been - Maholm's contract provides a club option for 2013 at a very affordable $6.5 million.
The really great thing about this is that it provides much more cost-certainty to help with the 2013 budget while also providing another potential 20 months for Delgado and Teheran to develop without having to be "rushed" if they need it. Odds are they won't, but Maholm is a much nicer option than Jair Jurrjens going forward. (Delgado turned in a dominant start for Gwinnett this afternoon by the way.)
Wren addressed all three of the areas the organization hoped to upgrade before the deadline in one fell swoop. Maholm helps stabilize the rotation, allowing Kris Medlen to return to his important bullpen role following tonight's start (assuming they decide to let Delgado take Tommy Hanson's next two turns while he's on the DL with a sore back). He also added a bat off the bench that kills southpaws AND can play above-average defense at all three OF positions, allowing Fredi Gonzalez to be much more flexible with his bench.
While the deal likely signals the end of both Jurrjens' and Matt Diaz' Braves' tenures, it does so without disturbing the organizational pitching depth chart. Yes Arodys Vizcaino has electric stuff, but he's recovering from Tommy John surgery, and there have long been indications that the organization never believed he'd be able to develop enough stamina or refine a sufficiently strong enough third pitch to remain a starter long-term. I actually took a little time to scour a couple threads concerning the deal where some fans screamed (as always) about how terrible the deal was because Vizcaino was included. His most apparent ceiling remained as a high-leverage reliever assuming he successfully returns from the surgery.
The last month has seen Frank Wren turn two RP prospects into 40% of the rotation moving forward (Maholm and the minor league deal Ben Sheets signed) and an extremely valuable PH/4th OF that the organization has been pursuing for a couple years. He did so without increasing payroll (the Cubs included cash in the deal to "upgrade" to Vizcaino - presumably covering the rest Maholm and Johnson's salaries this season) and did so without including anyone the organization presumed would be a member of its rotation any time in the near future.
If it didn't knock your socks off, so be it, it's a great deal. Bravo Frank Wren. Again.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Is There Another Target Out There?
OK, the Greinke Sweepstakes found a winner in Anaheim. We consistently heard he was THE target for Frank Wren and company. The company line is that the organization simply wasn't going to mortgage the future again for a rental. Funny thing though, Ryan Dempster was a Brave, then wasn't a Brave, and apparently doesn't want to be a Brave. However, if he DID want to be a Brave the organization wouldn't have minded grossly overpaying for him by sending Randall Delgado to Chicago.
The word making the rounds currently is that Wren's mainly looking to fortify the bench and the bullpen, yet he made no attempt to hide the fact that his main goal during the last two weeks was to upgrade the rotation. Was everything we heard erased with a third consecutive very strong start from Ben Sheets? Will another strong outing from Mike Minor tonight be enough to convince anyone that the rotation as currently constructed is going to be good enough to compete for a Title? Count me in the group that has its doubts.
Don't get me wrong - if the Ben Sheets we've seen for 18 innings is the Ben Sheets we're going to have from now until October, he and Tim Hudson can match up with just about anyone. The problem is that it's awfully tough to see any reason to feel confident that we can compete with anybody after their turns. Remember "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain" anyone???
Tommy Hanson's struggling more than he ever has at any level. Yes he's a battler and kept working incredibly hard during his last outing that reminds some of the legendary Nuke LaLoosh of Bull Durham fame (5 IP, 3 hits, 1 earned, 7 Ks, 7 BBs, and 7 SBs allowed) - but he's looked nothing like the guy the club had hoped would be Robin to Huddy's Batman when the season started. Brandon Beachy's unfortunately not even a whisper. Jair Jurrjens is done. Minor and Delgado have shown flashes of their upside, but both are battling what all young Pitchers do - inconsistency. Uber-prospect Julio Teheran is struggling mightily in Gwinnett - the company line there is that he's accomplishing everything they're asking of him (working hard on polishing his secondary offerings presumably), and the results don't reflect his progress. I'm hopeful that the evaluators that see Julio every day are right in their assessments, but it wasn't that long ago that they were saying the same things about Jurrjens.
As it stands now, Huddy and Sheets would have to go undefeated in the postseason for the team to have a chance - there's no one that currently makes you feel like they're up to the task of taking on the best teams' # 3 starters other than Kris Medlen, and he's not an option. Could "moving on" from Dempster and "not overpaying" for Greinke signal that they might entertain sending Medlen back down to get stretched back out if enough bullpen help can be acquired? Maybe, but that's not the feeling I get. If I'm right, then we still need ONE MORE starter. Maybe Tommy gets things together. Maybe Minor keeps making strides. Delgado and Teheran? We hope they're learning valuable lessons quickly. That's an awfully big gamble to take in a penant race, particularly one during Chipper Jones' last stand.
The one true difference maker that could be penciled in in the front half of a contender's rotation is still out there, and the price tag wouldn't be nearly as exorbitant as the asking prices for Greinke and Dempster. That guy is James Shields. Has he struggled for most of this season? Sure, but Shields is coming off a season where he finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young balloting. He has the ability to dominate teams when he's on, has a very team-friendly contract, and is under control through 2014. Trading for Shields would presumably leave enough financial flexibility for the team to pay market value to retain Michael Bourn as well as extend Martin Prado AND go after a LF next season even if it cost a pitching prospect or two (Justin Upton, anyone???)
Shields is owed around $2.5 million for the rest of this season, has a $9 million option for 2013, and a $12 million option for 2014. Assuming Sheets is "one and done" in Atlanta, you'd still be looking at beginning 2013 with a rotation that has Hudson, Shields, Hanson, Minor, and one of Delgado or Teheran until Beachy returns sometime after the All-Star break. One of the Pitchers (presumably Teheran is my gut feeling) could be included in a package IF the organization was willing to entertain the idea of trying to trade for someone like Upton.
Hudson, Shields, and Sheets would give this team a legitimate shot at sending Chipper out a winner. Getting Shields wouldn't compromise finances like re-signing Greinke would have, nor would it be as damaging to the stable of arms Wren's trying to hold on to. Tampa's presumably looking for a Catcher with upside and control as a part of any package for Shields (or Wade Davis or any other Pitcher they might make available). We have that piece in Christian Bethancourt. Shields' contract would also help with the flexibility the team needs to extend McCann following next season, meaning you'd have at least 2-3 more years to develop his eventual replacement.
Come on Frank, please go get that one more piece to give Chipper that one last shot - you have the pieces.
The word making the rounds currently is that Wren's mainly looking to fortify the bench and the bullpen, yet he made no attempt to hide the fact that his main goal during the last two weeks was to upgrade the rotation. Was everything we heard erased with a third consecutive very strong start from Ben Sheets? Will another strong outing from Mike Minor tonight be enough to convince anyone that the rotation as currently constructed is going to be good enough to compete for a Title? Count me in the group that has its doubts.
Don't get me wrong - if the Ben Sheets we've seen for 18 innings is the Ben Sheets we're going to have from now until October, he and Tim Hudson can match up with just about anyone. The problem is that it's awfully tough to see any reason to feel confident that we can compete with anybody after their turns. Remember "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain" anyone???
Tommy Hanson's struggling more than he ever has at any level. Yes he's a battler and kept working incredibly hard during his last outing that reminds some of the legendary Nuke LaLoosh of Bull Durham fame (5 IP, 3 hits, 1 earned, 7 Ks, 7 BBs, and 7 SBs allowed) - but he's looked nothing like the guy the club had hoped would be Robin to Huddy's Batman when the season started. Brandon Beachy's unfortunately not even a whisper. Jair Jurrjens is done. Minor and Delgado have shown flashes of their upside, but both are battling what all young Pitchers do - inconsistency. Uber-prospect Julio Teheran is struggling mightily in Gwinnett - the company line there is that he's accomplishing everything they're asking of him (working hard on polishing his secondary offerings presumably), and the results don't reflect his progress. I'm hopeful that the evaluators that see Julio every day are right in their assessments, but it wasn't that long ago that they were saying the same things about Jurrjens.
As it stands now, Huddy and Sheets would have to go undefeated in the postseason for the team to have a chance - there's no one that currently makes you feel like they're up to the task of taking on the best teams' # 3 starters other than Kris Medlen, and he's not an option. Could "moving on" from Dempster and "not overpaying" for Greinke signal that they might entertain sending Medlen back down to get stretched back out if enough bullpen help can be acquired? Maybe, but that's not the feeling I get. If I'm right, then we still need ONE MORE starter. Maybe Tommy gets things together. Maybe Minor keeps making strides. Delgado and Teheran? We hope they're learning valuable lessons quickly. That's an awfully big gamble to take in a penant race, particularly one during Chipper Jones' last stand.
The one true difference maker that could be penciled in in the front half of a contender's rotation is still out there, and the price tag wouldn't be nearly as exorbitant as the asking prices for Greinke and Dempster. That guy is James Shields. Has he struggled for most of this season? Sure, but Shields is coming off a season where he finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young balloting. He has the ability to dominate teams when he's on, has a very team-friendly contract, and is under control through 2014. Trading for Shields would presumably leave enough financial flexibility for the team to pay market value to retain Michael Bourn as well as extend Martin Prado AND go after a LF next season even if it cost a pitching prospect or two (Justin Upton, anyone???)
Shields is owed around $2.5 million for the rest of this season, has a $9 million option for 2013, and a $12 million option for 2014. Assuming Sheets is "one and done" in Atlanta, you'd still be looking at beginning 2013 with a rotation that has Hudson, Shields, Hanson, Minor, and one of Delgado or Teheran until Beachy returns sometime after the All-Star break. One of the Pitchers (presumably Teheran is my gut feeling) could be included in a package IF the organization was willing to entertain the idea of trying to trade for someone like Upton.
Hudson, Shields, and Sheets would give this team a legitimate shot at sending Chipper out a winner. Getting Shields wouldn't compromise finances like re-signing Greinke would have, nor would it be as damaging to the stable of arms Wren's trying to hold on to. Tampa's presumably looking for a Catcher with upside and control as a part of any package for Shields (or Wade Davis or any other Pitcher they might make available). We have that piece in Christian Bethancourt. Shields' contract would also help with the flexibility the team needs to extend McCann following next season, meaning you'd have at least 2-3 more years to develop his eventual replacement.
Come on Frank, please go get that one more piece to give Chipper that one last shot - you have the pieces.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Pitching Just Keeps Coming
Frank Wren has said his goal since day one of taking the reigns of the organization was to return it to its roots - based entirely on developing waves of young pitching talent to keep feeding the big club when needed. He's certainly well on his way to accomplishing that.
Everyone knows the big names - the Teherans, Delgados, Vizcainos, Minors, Gilmartins, et al. But there's more in the pipeline, and some of it could be moved along almost at will it seems. The names most haven't heard are guys like Aaron Northcraft, Mark Lamm, J. R. Graham, Mauricio Cabrera, and recently drafted Lucas Sims and are pretty impressive prospects in their own rights.
Possibly the most impressive one in the stable of arms, Cody Martin, spun another gem last night for Hi-A Lynchburg.
Martin's Complete Game Gem
We've got pitching, and have more pitching coming. It's time to turn a little of it into a true "Ace" - go get Zack Greinke and make this year's club a serious contender. A rotation topped by Greinke, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson stacks up with anyone else's, particularly in a short series.
Everyone knows the big names - the Teherans, Delgados, Vizcainos, Minors, Gilmartins, et al. But there's more in the pipeline, and some of it could be moved along almost at will it seems. The names most haven't heard are guys like Aaron Northcraft, Mark Lamm, J. R. Graham, Mauricio Cabrera, and recently drafted Lucas Sims and are pretty impressive prospects in their own rights.
Possibly the most impressive one in the stable of arms, Cody Martin, spun another gem last night for Hi-A Lynchburg.
Martin's Complete Game Gem
We've got pitching, and have more pitching coming. It's time to turn a little of it into a true "Ace" - go get Zack Greinke and make this year's club a serious contender. A rotation topped by Greinke, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson stacks up with anyone else's, particularly in a short series.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Is This The "Perfect Storm"???
Lots of chatter about significant players that are potentially available as we've reached the break, a handful of which could reasonably be expected to make the Braves serious contenders should they be acquired. That said, we all have to learn to temper expectations as fans. Frank Wren has been charged with keeping the organization competitive for the long run and given the current corporate ownership structure he's dealing with, going "all-in" isn't necessarily an option. However, it's time to take the GM cap off for a little bit and daydream a little.
There have already been rumblings that the team may very well dip into next year's finances to upgrade this year's product - there's significant money coming off the books following this season with Chipper Jones retiring, the end of the financial commitment to Derek Lowe, and the ability to further open up future salary space by declining to re-sign Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Martin Prado. In other words Wren is in position to almost entirely turn the roster over moving forward.
The question is, is it time to do that with an eye towards retaining the pieces he might be able to acquire in an attempt at sending Chipper off into the sunset with his second ring? For today's piece, I'm going to argue yes.
The signing of Ben Sheets was brilliant. Sheets has looked very good in his first two minor league starts, and last night's stretched him to 90 pitches. He likely can be called upon to step into the rotation with the big club whenever Wren decides he wants to do so. The Sheets signing and slotting means one of Randall Delgado or Mike Minor will be optioned back to Gwinnett within the next two weeks. It also may very well signal that at least one of them is available in a package to further upgrade the rotation for a playoff run.
Unless you've been hiding under a rock for the last month, you've heard that Zack Greinke is likely available whenever the Brewers receive a significant enough offer to pull the trigger. We "know" that offer isn't coming from the Yankees or Red Sox, and it doesn't seem that the Rangers or Angels are interested in topping significant offers if they're made. Word has it that the Orioles are likely to be bidders but aren't moving Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado under any circumstances. The Braves have always loved Greinke (who's from the Orlando area where the team's spring training complex is), and Zack is said to prefer to avoid the pressure that comes with pitching in the biggest markets. An unnamed former teammate has also been quoted as saying that Zack mentioned at times that he thinks he would like pitching in Atlanta. The time is right for Wren to pounce - yes retaining him beyond this year will be expensive, but he's the type of Pitcher you commit to building your organization around. Offer Milwaukee their choice of Delgado and SS Tyler Pastornicky or Minor, Pastornicky, and Zeke Spruill or another lower level pitching prospect for Greinke and bite the bullet after the season and hope that he can be re-signed for a somewhat team-friendly contract after having time to realize he will like it here.
Now we're finding out that Arizona is serious about being willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton. Upton's struggled a bit early this season, but is an elite level talent, and is signed through 2015 with $38.5 million due from 2013-2015. That number averages out to less of a commitment per season than Chipper's current contract. While he's not going to be a realistic "replacement" for Michael Bourn in CF if he proves to be too expensive to re-sign following this year, he would be an awfully good fit moving forward because he's capable of easily replacing Chipper's production in the middle of the order, and would allow Martin Prado to move to 3B for good if he's retained. One of Arizona's rumored wish list pieces is a top of the rotation SP as part of the package. This may finally be the time to turn that "currency" (Wren's own word) the organization has stockpiled - young, controllable high ceiling SPs - into a serious offensive threat. Build a package around Julio Teheran (and include Matt Diaz to clear a little salary) and see if you can pry Upton away. Doing so would likely mean you have to part ways with Bourn following this season, but Upton's the type of player you would do that for. With Andrelton Simmons out for 4-6 weeks, I'd also ask if they'd include Willie Bloomquist in the deal and upgrade the pieces involved where needed. Bloomquist is a very good super-utility type guy who can handle SS, and he's under control through next season for less than $2 million.
Those moves would leave you with the following roster for a postseason run...
CF- Bourn
3B- Prado
RF- Heyward
2B- Uggla
C- McCann
LF- Upton
1B- Freeman
SS- Bloomquist (until Simmons returns)
Bench- Ross, Chipper, Hinske, Francisco, Wilson
SP- Greinke
SP- Hudson
SP- Hanson
SP- Jurrjens
SP- Sheets
Prado moves around between 3B, LF, 2B, and 1B the rest of the season to allow Chipper to continue to get plenty of ABs as well as allowing everyone to stay fresher as the season drags on. Then he can settle in at 3B next season or the team could choose to allow him to walk and spend his dollars on a CF replacement for Bourn and go with Francisco there. When Simmons returns, Wilson can be released.
That is exactly the type of roster that could send Chipper out on top one more time.
There have already been rumblings that the team may very well dip into next year's finances to upgrade this year's product - there's significant money coming off the books following this season with Chipper Jones retiring, the end of the financial commitment to Derek Lowe, and the ability to further open up future salary space by declining to re-sign Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Martin Prado. In other words Wren is in position to almost entirely turn the roster over moving forward.
The question is, is it time to do that with an eye towards retaining the pieces he might be able to acquire in an attempt at sending Chipper off into the sunset with his second ring? For today's piece, I'm going to argue yes.
The signing of Ben Sheets was brilliant. Sheets has looked very good in his first two minor league starts, and last night's stretched him to 90 pitches. He likely can be called upon to step into the rotation with the big club whenever Wren decides he wants to do so. The Sheets signing and slotting means one of Randall Delgado or Mike Minor will be optioned back to Gwinnett within the next two weeks. It also may very well signal that at least one of them is available in a package to further upgrade the rotation for a playoff run.
Unless you've been hiding under a rock for the last month, you've heard that Zack Greinke is likely available whenever the Brewers receive a significant enough offer to pull the trigger. We "know" that offer isn't coming from the Yankees or Red Sox, and it doesn't seem that the Rangers or Angels are interested in topping significant offers if they're made. Word has it that the Orioles are likely to be bidders but aren't moving Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado under any circumstances. The Braves have always loved Greinke (who's from the Orlando area where the team's spring training complex is), and Zack is said to prefer to avoid the pressure that comes with pitching in the biggest markets. An unnamed former teammate has also been quoted as saying that Zack mentioned at times that he thinks he would like pitching in Atlanta. The time is right for Wren to pounce - yes retaining him beyond this year will be expensive, but he's the type of Pitcher you commit to building your organization around. Offer Milwaukee their choice of Delgado and SS Tyler Pastornicky or Minor, Pastornicky, and Zeke Spruill or another lower level pitching prospect for Greinke and bite the bullet after the season and hope that he can be re-signed for a somewhat team-friendly contract after having time to realize he will like it here.
Now we're finding out that Arizona is serious about being willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton. Upton's struggled a bit early this season, but is an elite level talent, and is signed through 2015 with $38.5 million due from 2013-2015. That number averages out to less of a commitment per season than Chipper's current contract. While he's not going to be a realistic "replacement" for Michael Bourn in CF if he proves to be too expensive to re-sign following this year, he would be an awfully good fit moving forward because he's capable of easily replacing Chipper's production in the middle of the order, and would allow Martin Prado to move to 3B for good if he's retained. One of Arizona's rumored wish list pieces is a top of the rotation SP as part of the package. This may finally be the time to turn that "currency" (Wren's own word) the organization has stockpiled - young, controllable high ceiling SPs - into a serious offensive threat. Build a package around Julio Teheran (and include Matt Diaz to clear a little salary) and see if you can pry Upton away. Doing so would likely mean you have to part ways with Bourn following this season, but Upton's the type of player you would do that for. With Andrelton Simmons out for 4-6 weeks, I'd also ask if they'd include Willie Bloomquist in the deal and upgrade the pieces involved where needed. Bloomquist is a very good super-utility type guy who can handle SS, and he's under control through next season for less than $2 million.
Those moves would leave you with the following roster for a postseason run...
CF- Bourn
3B- Prado
RF- Heyward
2B- Uggla
C- McCann
LF- Upton
1B- Freeman
SS- Bloomquist (until Simmons returns)
Bench- Ross, Chipper, Hinske, Francisco, Wilson
SP- Greinke
SP- Hudson
SP- Hanson
SP- Jurrjens
SP- Sheets
Prado moves around between 3B, LF, 2B, and 1B the rest of the season to allow Chipper to continue to get plenty of ABs as well as allowing everyone to stay fresher as the season drags on. Then he can settle in at 3B next season or the team could choose to allow him to walk and spend his dollars on a CF replacement for Bourn and go with Francisco there. When Simmons returns, Wilson can be released.
That is exactly the type of roster that could send Chipper out on top one more time.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Deserving Bourn Named To All-Star Team
Michael Bourn has been named to the 2012 NL All-Star team, replacing Ian Desmond. Desmond is playing in the Nationals' game that's going on right now, but is nursing a lat strain and is going to use the break to try to get healthy.
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/07/07/bourn-named-to-nl-all-star-team/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog
Bourn finished second in the "Final Five" voting that concluded this past Thursday, and many have pointed out that he arguably deserved to be named to the team to begin with. He's having a career year, and there's little doubt the Braves wouldn't be where they are at this point if not for him.
Unfortunately this leaves Martin Prado as the lone deserving Brave left off the roster. Martin is showing everyone that his struggles last season were likely completely attributable to his health. There's no way anyone could ask for more from the top two hitters in their lineup than Bourn and Prado have provided the Braves at the halfway point of the season.
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/07/07/bourn-named-to-nl-all-star-team/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog
Bourn finished second in the "Final Five" voting that concluded this past Thursday, and many have pointed out that he arguably deserved to be named to the team to begin with. He's having a career year, and there's little doubt the Braves wouldn't be where they are at this point if not for him.
Unfortunately this leaves Martin Prado as the lone deserving Brave left off the roster. Martin is showing everyone that his struggles last season were likely completely attributable to his health. There's no way anyone could ask for more from the top two hitters in their lineup than Bourn and Prado have provided the Braves at the halfway point of the season.
Ben Sheets' Thoughts Following His First Start
Ben Sheets interview following his minor league start for the Mississippi Braves this week...
http://www2.wjtv.com/sports/2012/jul/06/ben-sheets-interview-ar-4091439/
Sounds promising. Have to think it will likely take more than 2-3 starts to be completely "ready" to join the big club's rotation, but you can see that he's not about to try to pull the wool over anyone's eyes and pronounce himself the Sheets of old that struck out 18 Braves in a game several years back.
http://www2.wjtv.com/sports/2012/jul/06/ben-sheets-interview-ar-4091439/
Sounds promising. Have to think it will likely take more than 2-3 starts to be completely "ready" to join the big club's rotation, but you can see that he's not about to try to pull the wool over anyone's eyes and pronounce himself the Sheets of old that struck out 18 Braves in a game several years back.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
When Sid Slid's 2012 Atlanta Braves' Top 10 Prospects Capsules
Our personal take on the Braves' current top prospects - all due respect to our other friends who rank them as well!!! (Players' ages listed reflect the age they will be during the 2012 campaign.)
1.) Julio Teheran (21) - RHSP - Gwinnett...If there wasn't a certain young lefty that just signed yet another team-friendly contract in Tampa Bay (Matt Moore), he'd be the best pitching prospect in the game. The Yankees offered him more money to sign back in 2007, but the Braves held the advantage of employing a certain scout named Miguel Teheran (his cousin). Much like the aforementioned Moore, the 21 year old has raced through the Braves' system, with the only "pause" coming when the organization was cautious with his shoulder back in 2008. Teheran has a plus fastball that sits in the 93-96 MPH range and touches 98. His second best offering is a devastating changeup with excellent depth and fade that he's willing to throw at any time, whether ahead or behind in the count. He also throws both a slider and a curve, and both project to be at least average if not a bit above.
OUTLOOK...Teheran has "ace" written all over him. He needs a little refinement - settling on which breaking ball he can rely on, holding runners a little more effectively, and a continued gradual increase in his workload before he's starting on Opening Day for the big club. He made a couple of emergency starts last season when injuries hit and held his own at age 20 in the bigs, so he's gotten a taste of what's to come soon. With the current logjam of arms looking for innings Teheran's likely to return to Gwinnett to begin 2012, but as soon as the Braves feel that Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson are completely healthy and capable of handling their normal workloads he likely forces a trade of at least one of the guys ahead of him in the pecking order.
Other Views...Baseball America (1), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (1), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (1), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (1)
2.) Randall Delgado (22) - RHSP - Gwinnett...Much like Julio Teheran, Delgado "got his feet wet" in Atlanta last season when he was called on because of injuries. What he showed while with the big club is what separates him from many others, and almost led me to rank he and Teheran as co-number 1s. While many evaluators feel his fastball isn't the plus-plus offering that Teheran's is (which I feel often clouds their judgement) he showed remarkable poise for a 21 year old in a penant race, only allowing 7 earned runs in 5 September starts while replacing the likes of Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. He has a plus curveball and solid changeup, and throws all three pitches with good arm speed and a consistent, easy delivery.
OUTLOOK...While Delgado's ultimate ceiling may be lower than Teheran's if all things work out for both, his imaginable floor is likely as a number 2 starter who may not light up radar guns but simply gets people out and chews up innings. He reminds me of Tim Hudson in that while he doesn't necessarily have the same sexy peripherals as another contender's "ace", you just don't feel that you're at much of a disadvantage running him out there against anybody at any time. He'll also likely start out in Gwinnett working to tighten up whatever tweaks Roger McDowell and Fredi Gonzalez say they'd like to see him "fix" but he could easily to step in now if needed, and is simply biding his time until an injury occurs or someone's traded.
Other Views...Baseball America (3), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (3), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (3), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (3)
3.) Andrelton Simmons (22) - SS - Mississippi...This one will come as a bit of a shock when comparing this list to others, but won't be the only time they'll differ significantly. Simmons was passed on by several organizations who preferred that he take advantage of the arm that flashed 98 MPH heat during the one season he spent at Western Oklahoma JC because he wanted a shot at becoming an everyday player. Baaaaad mistake folks. Andrelton has rewarded the Braves for giving him that opportunity by becoming the best defensive SS in the minors according to most scouts, many of whom feel he could handle the position at the MLB level now. He can already make all the plays, and (obviously) has that cannon of an arm that enables him to make all the throws. Much like former Braves SS of the future Yunel Escobar, the errors he typically makes tend to come when he simply gets to balls most players can't get to. The only question that seemingly remains to be answered about Simmons is when (not if) his bat will be ready. He can use a bit of work on his approach since he's generally aggressive at the plate and the "stuff" he'll see moving forward will only get nastier, but figures to develop gap power as his frame fills out. He's shown that he has a good understanding of the strike zone by winning his league's batting title last season even with that aggressive approach.
OUTLOOK...Simmons is coming, and he's coming fast. He'll start out the season in AA, but if he shows he can have success against the more advanced pitching he'll see there and Tyler Pastornicky struggles while being given his shot to keep the position warm for Andrelton in 2013 don't be surprised to see him late this year. Frank Wren has been consistent in saying that the organization was comfortable enough with Pastornicky that the only "need" this winter was a glove guy with experience to help show him the ropes. My guess is that the team might not be much worse off if they chose to substitute Simmons for Pastornicky given its current roster, and you might not even lose Scrabble points if you flip-flopped the two players' names.
Other Views...Baseball America (4), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (4), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (9), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (5)
4.) Arodys Vizcaino (22) - RHSP - Gwinnett...Vizcaino is that guy that keeps you up at night, salivating over what he "might be" if everything falls into place for him. When he's at his best he displays top of the rotation stuff. His fastball flashes plus-plus when he commands it, consistently sitting between 93-95 MPH and touching 99 on occasion when he really cuts it loose. He also possesses a nasty curveball that some evaluators feel he throws too often, and a changeup that is presently an average pitch that could become better if he remains a starter. Therein lies the rub - as he reached AAA last season, the organization transitioned him to the bullpen to both limit his innings and make him comfortable enough in that role that they could use him in Atlanta as the massive number of innings the "big three" (Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty) logged continued to climb. The nagging question that has followed Arodys since the day the Braves acquired him in the deal that sent Javier Vazquez back for a second stint in the Bronx is whether he'll ever be able to build up enough size and stamina to give you 200+ innings without breaking down.
OUTLOOK...My gut tells me that Vizcaino simply will never be able to handle the rigors of a full season (30+ starts) without injury. While I hardly ever feel comfortable hyping relief pitchers, this kid could be another Craig Kimbrel if the organization ultimately decides to move him to the pen and he only has to throw fastballs and curves for 60-ish innings every year. While there are likely only two other organizations in baseball (Tampa Bay and Kansas City) that have the depth in their system to turn a guy with Arodys' potential ceiling into a reliever, I can't help but feel that it winds up being the best thing for the big club if he isn't traded.
Other Views...Baseball America (2), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (2), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (2), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (2)
5.) Edward Salcedo (21) - 3B - Lynchburg...Much like Vizcaino, Salcedo is one of those guys scouts love to dream on. Originally signed as a SS out of the Dominican Republic, the organization has already begun his transition away from the position in part because of his glove but also because of the consensus that he was going to outgrow it anyway. He spent most of last season at 3B in Rome, and while he struggled somewhat, most evaluators feel that he can eventually stick there if he puts in the work. Truth be told, the Braves didn't sign him for his defensive skills, and a future move to an OF corner can't be ruled out. The reason they spent big (a franchise record $1.6 million bonus for a foreign amateur signee) on Salcedo is his bat, which arguably has the highest upside in the system. His pitch recognition began to improve as he became more comfortable in his first full season in the US, and he began to cut down on his strikeouts.
OUTLOOK...Salcedo is still quite raw but has very good tools and a quick bat that should lead to the development of explosive power assuming his strike zone judgement continues to improve. With future Hall Of Fame 3B Chipper Jones hanging around for at least this season and Martin Prado under control through 2013, the organization can continue to be content with allowing Salcedo to progress at his own pace. If he proves he's capable of handling the hot corner defensively and his bat turns out to be as good as hoped, the Braves may very well already have Chipper's long-term successor.
Other Views...Baseball America (6), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (6), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (6), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (8)
6.) Christian Bethancourt (21) - C - Mississippi...Bethancourt, like Salcedo, is still quite raw but has all the tools to become an All-Star. Evaluators have kept a close eye on the young Panamian since he starred for his home country during the 2004 Little League World Series. He struggled initially with his adjustment to full season baseball, but has since handled each challenge the organization has presented him with. Bethancourt has consistently flashed the defensive tools that everyone loves to see - good athleticism and a cannon for an arm that lead some scouts to believe that he can develop into a 70 grade defender (think Yadier Molina). Christian still has work to do as he seemingly gets somewhat bored at times, reaching for balls rather than moving his body to block them, but the organization feels he will make that adjustment as he continues to mature. His bat lagged behind his other tools until the organization really challenged him by promoting him to AA a portion of the way through last season, followed by a trip to the Arizona Fall League (where he impressed enough to be named a starter in the Rising Stars Game). The hope is that he'll adjust his free-swinging ways as he continues to mature, but even if he doesn't contact rate doesn't appear to be an issue and he projects to have at least solid power (if not a tick above average).
OUTLOOK...Bethancourt began to get a taste of success on the big stage the AFL provides this fall, and the organization hopes that was the push needed to help him mature a little more quickly - the realization that you can hold your own with that level of competition should help make it all the more clearer that you're not far away from being ready for the big time if you commit to improving your weaknesses. With franchise icon and hometown hero Brian McCann under control through the end of 2013, the Braves can afford to only challenge Bethancourt at the appropriate pace moving forward. If he continues to develop as hoped, the organization could conceivably have a tough choice to make - McCann's consistently been the best Catcher in the NL for several seasons, but he's not getting any younger and he's probably not capable of moving to any other position than 1B which looks to be covered for several years to come.
Other Views...Baseball America (9), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (10), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (4), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (4)
7.) Sean Gilmartin (22) - LHSP - Mississippi...Gilmartin is one of those guys that every organization would love to have - a college Pitcher with a ceiling of a number 2 starter, a floor of a number 3 starter, and the kind of makeup that allows you to move him along as quickly as your circumstances dictate. He rightfully draws comparisons to Mike Minor, and those comparisons would be tough to find fault with. Gilmartin's best pitch is his plus changeup, but both his fastball and slider grade out as at least average to a tick above. One thing the organization really liked about Gilmarin (as well as Minor) whent they drafted him was that he had success pitching against elite level college competition while he was at Florida State - he was very rarely rattled, and always seemed to want the ball even more the bigger the stage got. This is one of the most important traits contending teams look for, particularly in starting Pitchers - guys who are almost oblivious to what's going on around them, who the opponent is, how big the crowd is, etc. focus strictly on success.
OUTLOOK...Gilmartin (along with Kris Medlen, Teheran, Delgado, and Vizcaino) gives the Braves the type of flexibility most organizations typically only dream of. When you add him to their list of starters, you're looking at a team with 10 guys with at least number 3 starter ceilings that they can plug into their rotation going into spring training. He won't be given a realistic shot of making the team out of camp, but he's someone Frank Wren, Fredi Gonzalez, and Roger McDowell (as well as scouts from 29 other teams) will be watching very closely. Gilmartin gives the team yet another option should one (or more) of the starters ahead of him in the pecking order be traded for an offensive upgrade, and could be packaged in that type of trade as a player to be named later as well.
Other Views...Baseball America (5), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (5), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (unranked), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (7)
8.) Tyler Pastornicky (22) - SS - Atlanta...Pastornicky is one of those guys that everybody other than scouts loves. He's a high-energy player with solid across the board tools and great makeup. While he's not Andrelton Simmons (or even Alex Gonzalez) defensively, most evaluators believe that while there aren't likely Gold Gloves in his future, he's still capable enough to handle the position everyday. He has shown above-average range as well as an average arm, and competes as hard as anyone in the organization (which should allow his tools to further play up). His offense has improved with each step up the ladder. A bit of a free-swinger, he has excellent contact skills and a low strikeout rate, and isn't afraid to take a walk when the opportunity arises. He's never likely going to hit many HRs, but should provide solid gap power and plenty of 2Bs and 3Bs with his above-average speed and excellent baserunning skills (27 SBs last season). While his offensive skillset profiles like that of a leadoff hitter, the Braves already have that taken care of for the time being with Michael Bourn in the fold.
OUTLOOK...The Braves showed how much confidence they have in Pastornicky this offseason, choosing only to bring back a "glove-only" guy in Jack Wilson to provide competition for the position as camp opens. To be honest, he was brought back more to be a "guru" for Pastornicky to soak knowledge from more than to truly provide competition. Tyler will likely begin the season as the starting SS and bat 8th, but if he proves that he can do the same things at the MLB level that he did while sweeping through AA and AAA in 2011 he could very well be a great fit behind Bourn in the lineup, allowing Fredi Gonzalez to move the more powerful Martin Prado further down to help provide better overall balance hitting between McCann/Freeman/Heyward where more RBI opportunities arise. Pastornicky reminds me of a young David Eckstein sparkplug type of player.
Other Views...Baseball America (7), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (8), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (8), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (6)
9.) Joey Terdoslavich (24) - 3B - Mississippi...One of the many recent Braves' draftees that signal a bit of a change in organizational philosophy, "Joey T" was a college position player seemingly picked to help provide system depth. Then a funny thing happened - he hit, and he hit, and he kept on hitting. He spent the 2011 regular season playing 1B at Lynchburg, and hit .286/.341/.526/.867 with 20 HRs and 52 2Bs. That earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League where he stepped things up even further, delivering a .321/.424/.548/.972 line with 3 more bombs. He possesses better natural hitting skills than anyone in the organization. Assuming a normal progression, Terdoslavich profiles as a 25-30 HR threat at the MLB level. He was adequate at 1B this season at Rome, but he's probably not a long-term fit there defensively.
OUTLOOK...Joey T will face a big challenge as he likely starts the 2012 campaign at Mississippi, as the organization moves him across the diamond to 3B to see if he's somehow capable of handling the defensive challenge the hot corner provides adequately. If he does and continues to hit, he could provide the Braves a potential "replacement" for Chipper Jones should he decide to walk away following this season. The expectation is that it's ultimately a little too tough for him. While he may not be the answer there, the team still controls Martin Prado for 2013, giving others like Edward Salcedo, Brandon Drury, or Kyle Kubitza time to develop. Whether he remains a Brave over the long run likely hinges on yet another position change (likely to LF), but his bat should get him to The Show somewhere even if it isn't in Atlanta.
Other Views...Baseball America (unranked), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (15), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (unranked), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (11)
10.) Matt Lipka (20) - OF - Lynchburg...Much like Terdoslavich, Lipka's a bit of a player without a position. A premium two-sport athlete in high school, the organization felt it got a steal when he slid to them in the 2010 draft. Matt was Dodgers' top prospect Zach Lee's favorite target as an All-State WR before both chose baseball over football scholarships, and has plus speed to go along with his excellent makeup that should ultimately allow him to become a productive major leaguer. Following a season spent between SS and 2B in Rome, the organization sent Lipka to instructs with the intent of transitioning him into a CF. This move wasn't because evaluators feel he doesn't possess the tools to succeed as a middle infielder, rather because the presence of Tyler Pastornicky, Andrelton Simmons, and 2011 draftee Nick Ahmed provide the Braves the luxury of moving him to a position with far fewer options for development. While his numbers were far from eye-popping at Rome he showed a very good approach at the plate, and Lipka projects as an above-average hitter that should develop gap power and plenty of extra-base hits as he matures.
OUTLOOK...His athleticism and makeup (often described as the proverbial baseball rat) bode well for the shift to CF. He's already shown that he's capable of utilizing his speed on the basepaths with 28 steals in his inaugural season. It will obviously take a little time to adjust to reading the ball off the bat and taking appropriate routes to flyballs, but evaluators feel Matt is up to the task. The shift was pushed a little quickly because the Braves don't really have any solid options to replace Michael Bourn in center should he not be retained following this season. In any event, Lipka's not likely to be ready to step in before 2014 at the earliest, meaning Frank Wren will have a decision to make next winter. If Matt starts to hit like many feel he can this year, the organization may very well decide to let Bourn walk and try to find a stopgap out there until he's ready.
Other Views...Baseball America (unranked), John Sickels - Minor League Ball (12), Jonathon Mayo - MiLB.com (7), Mark Anderson - Baseball Prospect Nation (9)
Honorable Mentions...
Brandon Drury (20) - 3B - Rome, Carlos Perez (20) - LHSP - Lynchburg, Zeke Spruill (22) - RHSP - Mississippi, J. J. Hoover (25) - RHSP - Gwinnett, Tommy La Stella (23) - 2B/OF - Lynchburg
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)